Agricultural News
Dr. Kim Anderson says Not Much New Information on USDA's Wheat Report
Fri, 25 Feb 2022 12:49:00 CST
The USDA released the first 2022/23 wheat marketing year supply and demand estimates for Wheat. According to Crop Marketing specialist, Dr. Kim Anderson, There wasn't much new information in the wheat report.
2022 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 1.94 billion bushels compared to 1.65 billion bushels in 2021 and 1.93 billion bushels in 2020. 2022 wheat planted acres are estimated to be 48 million compared to 46.7 million acres for 2021.
All wheat 2022/23 ending stocks are estimated to be 731 million bushels compared to 648 million for the 2021/22 marketing year. The 2022/23 average annual price is estimated to be $6.30 compared to $7.30 for the current 2021/22 marketing year. Note that the average 2021 June, July and August Oklahoma wheat price was $6.35 compared to the average U.S. wheat price of $6.54.
Estimates were not released by wheat class. In the January USDA wheat seedings report, 2022 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat planted acres were estimated to be 23.8 million acres compared to 23.5 million for 2021. Higher planted acres imply higher harvested acres. Current wheat crop conditions for most of the HRW are lower than last year, implying the odds of lower yields. Hard red winter wheat production may be less than last year's 750 million bushels. The 5-year average is 733 million bushels.
USDA's increase in wheat production is probably mostly due to higher soft red winter and hard red spring production. At least early in the wheat marketing year (June through May), hard red winter wheat prices may be above the average price for all wheat.
Wheat may be forward contracted for the July hard red winter wheat futures contract price ($8.82 at this writing) minus a 32-cent basis. At this writing the Medford Oklahoma forward contract price is $8.50.
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