Agricultural News
OSU's Kim Anderson says Latest WASDE Numbers Have Potential to be Bullish in Long Run
Thu, 14 Jul 2022 15:02:26 CDT
This week on SUNUP is Dr. Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University Extension grain market economist. With the WASDE being released this week, we quickly saw wheat prices drop 45 cents. During this week's edition, Anderson says the report is not as bearish as it seems.
“I think all of these numbers are a little bit bearish but over the long run I think they can be bullish,” Anderson said.
Anderson credits the 45-cent drop to the Russia and Ukraine situation.
“You look at Russian production, it was at 3 billion bushels,” Anderson said. “Some analysts have it at 3.1 billion and near record.”
Russian exports, Anderson said, are at 1.5 billion bushels for this next year compared to 1.2 last year. Ukraine’s production is at 716 million bushels, he added, versus an average of 1 billion.
“If you look at their exports, it’s 367 million bushels versus 691 million,” Anderson said. “Russian export increase offsets that.”
This week, Anderson said 8 ships moved into Ukrainian ports to load agricultural commodities.
“I think that scared the market a little bit and that drove prices down momentarily,” Anderson said.
Anderson said the USDA is predicting $10.50 wheat for the next marketing year. Anderson believes that the price is a little high and the market can support 9 to 10-dollar wheat prices.
The reason Anderson believes the market can support that 9 to 10-dollar wheat price comes from looking at the stocks-to-use ratio.
“You go back to 2012 and 2013, the world ending stocks were 6 percent below normal, the U.S. was 7 below normal and prices averaged $7.77,” Anderson said. “This year, world-ending stocks are projected to be 10 percent below normal compared to 7 percent. The U.S. ending stocks to use at 28 percent below normal compared to 7.”
This week on SUNUP:
• Kelly Seuhs, OSU Extension Alfalfa specialist, explains why populations of blister beetles are higher this summer than in past years.
• Wes Lee, OSU Extension Mesonet agricultural specialist, says many areas in the state are officially in a flash drought. State climatologist Gary McManus says the past 30 days have been the driest period since the dust bowl.
• Kim Anderson, OSU Extension grain marketing specialist, covers the latest WASDE report and explains why the wheat market has recently taken a hit.
• Mark Johnson, OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist, discusses genetics in cattle selection.
• Dave Lalman, OSU Extension beef cattle specialist, has information about using the Oklahoma Gold Program for fall-born replacement heifers.
• Marley Beem, OSU Extension aquaculture specialist, tells us when pond owners should be concerned about algae blooms.
• Finally, SUNUP takes a look at recent train the trainer workshop about managing mass loss in livestock.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m. & Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
YouTube.com/SUNUPtv
SUNUP.okstate.edu
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