Beef Buzz News
Peel Says U.S. Herd Expansion Will Continue into 2018
Thu, 03 Sep 2015 15:10:12 CDT
There is no doubt herd rebuilding is taking place across the United States, but how aggressive the pace is, remains to be determined. Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel predicts the pace is above two and half percent and it could be as much as four percent this year.
"That's one question, we have to wait and see just how much rebuilding we did this year," Peel said. "That will set the stage and this continuing events will set the stage then for what happens next year. I think we'll still be rebuilding next year, but perhaps not as aggressively, as it looked like earlier."
The number of cows in the U.S. continues to grow. Herd expansion started in 2014, continued into 2015 and will continue into 2016, but how many cows will be needed? That's a question, the industry can't answer. Peel said consumer demand will ultimately determine the size of the U.S. cattle herd. That will be determined by domestic and international demand in the next two to four years.
Another factor will be U.S. beef production. That comes down to carcass weight. In looking at number of cows and pounds of beef produced, Peel estimates the herd needs to get back to 32 million cows. The last time the U.S. had that many cows was back in 2004. Since then, carcass weights have gotten heavier, so the U.S. producers will grow this herd differently, than in the past. Peel predicts the very earliest that could happen would be 2017.
"There's lots of reasons why I don't think we would grow that fast," Peel said. "That's pushing the numbers very, very hard, really beyond anything we've ever seen in terms of herd expansion. So, I think it's likely to be into 2018 at the earliest before we get there and there's still a number of factors that would push it to another year beyond that."
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's July cattle inventory report has the nation's cow numbers just below 30 million head. Peel said U.S. producers added 700 thousand cows last year and another 750 thousand head could be added this year. He think the U.S. cattle industry will still need another million head, before the industry will slow herd expansion.
Radio Oklahoma Network Farm Director Ron Hays featured Peel on the Beef Buzz feature. Click or tap on the LISTEN BAR below to listen to today's Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network- but is also a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show- and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
Ron Hays Beef Buzzes with Derrell Peel of OSU
right-click to download mp3
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Beef News
January Cattle on Feed Report Three Percent Under Year Ago- Derrell Peel Says Tighter Supplies Will Be Around for Awhile Mon, 23 Jan 2023 05:15:04 CST
Derrell Peel Talks Latest Cattle on Feed Report- Showing Fewer Cattle on Feed, Lighter Placements and Stronger Marketings. Mon, 26 Dec 2022 08:19:00 CST
Kara Lee with Certified Angus Beef Tells Cattlemen 'Cut the Bull' Fri, 23 Dec 2022 14:30:39 CST
Beef Checkoff Utilizes Digital Marketing Techniques to Interact with Consumers Thu, 22 Dec 2022 16:02:51 CST
Beef Checkoff Research, Education, and Promotion Efforts Point Consumers to Beef Wed, 21 Dec 2022 16:15:46 CST
OSU Economist Derrell Peel Expects US Beef Export Strength to Continue Into the New Year Tue, 20 Dec 2022 08:00:35 CST
NPPC's Michael Formica Feeling Positive About Supreme Courts Upcoming Proposition 12 Decision Mon, 05 Dec 2022 10:08:27 CST
NCBA Fights to Improve Marketing Options for Cattle Producers Fri, 02 Dec 2022 09:58:28 CST
Chinese Consumers Continue to Grow Appetite for U.S. Beef Thu, 01 Dec 2022 09:23:49 CST
Merck Creates Value for Producers and Consumers with Technology and Biopharmaceuticals Wed, 30 Nov 2022 09:55:28 CST
NCBA’s Todd Wilkinson Ready to Fight Back Against Regulatory Overreach in the Cattle Industry Tue, 29 Nov 2022 10:13:33 CST
NCBA and PLC Call ESA Listing Plan of Lesser Prairie Chicken Punitive for Cattle Producers in Southern Plains Wed, 23 Nov 2022 14:51:02 CST
November Cattle on Feed Report Confirms October Pattern of Lower Placements and Tighter Cattle Numbers in Feedlots Tue, 22 Nov 2022 05:07:02 CST
Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:36:33 CST
Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:27:40 CST
Midterm Elections to Set Stage for What Can Be Expected in 2023 Farm Bill Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:13:57 CST
USMEF's Dan Halstrom Remains Cautiously Optimistic about Strong Beef Demand Going Forward Thu, 03 Nov 2022 09:35:46 CDT
Economic Factors Create Hesitancy in Beef Plant Expansion Plans Wed, 02 Nov 2022 11:03:34 CDT
NCBA's Mike Simone Says Consumer Interest in Fake Meat is on the Decline Tue, 01 Nov 2022 11:41:02 CDT
Beef Remains Valued Product for Consumers as it Allows Them to Stretch their Dollar Mon, 31 Oct 2022 09:15:56 CDT
Hugh Aljoe Provides Methods to Begin and Maintain Good Land Stewardship Fri, 28 Oct 2022 09:30:13 CDT
Implement Soil Health Practices Now to Increase Forage Production when Rains Come Thu, 27 Oct 2022 15:14:07 CDT
Third Beef. It's What's For Dinner. 300 Promotes the Beef Industry on a National Level Wed, 26 Oct 2022 15:32:23 CDT
Latest Cattle on Feed Report from USDA Implies Fewer Pounds of Beef Available in 2023 Tue, 25 Oct 2022 10:17:53 CDT
OSU's Derrell Peel- Lower Placements and Smaller On Feed Number Highlight October Cattle on Feed Report Sun, 23 Oct 2022 12:45:37 CDT
Beef Checkoff Research Continues to Share Beef Sustainability Story with Consumers Fri, 21 Oct 2022 09:23:36 CDT
Beef Checkoff Research Works to Ensure Consumers Beef is a Product They Can Trust Thu, 20 Oct 2022 13:44:44 CDT
Odds for Significant Wheat Pasture Going Lower Daily in the Southern Plains Wed, 19 Oct 2022 14:35:46 CDT
NCBA Weighs in on California's Proposition 12 Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:32:24 CDT
2022 Stockyards Steak Out Takes Oklahoma Beef to the Next Level Mon, 17 Oct 2022 11:09:07 CDT
Holding Onto Your Cow Herd a Little Longer is Projected to Pay Off, says Randy Blach Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:14:05 CDT
Randy Blach Confident in Better Cattle Market Conditions Down the Road Thu, 13 Oct 2022 09:43:02 CDT
No Imports or Exports Would Result in a Smaller U.S. Beef Cattle Industry Wed, 12 Oct 2022 16:11:15 CDT
Derrell Peel Explains Why International Trade of Beef is Valuable Tue, 11 Oct 2022 08:19:29 CDT
Animal Agriculture Hopeful for a Win as U.S. Supreme Court Looks at California's Proposition 12 Mon, 10 Oct 2022 09:26:17 CDT