Farm Director, KC Sheperd, caught up with Allendale’s Rich Nelson and talked about the numbers in the latest WASDE report.

“Biggest issue we were kind of watching for today was on the wheat side,” Nelson said. “I think the trade was a bit relieved to see that USDA did not hit the export sale numbers for old crop like they could have and left those unchanged.” (see more on the wheat crop as it relates to the southern plains in the story below)

USDA projects farmers are in the midst of planting the country’s largest corn crop on record at 15.265 billion bushels (bb) and a record soybean crop at 4.51 bb with 2023-24 “new-crop” ending stocks for corn projected at 2.22 bb and soybeans pegged at 335 million bushels (mb).

Nelson says  he said we did see some bearish numbers for Corn, “USDA did cut export sales and the old crop side by 75 million bushels, and therefore we now have old crop stocks up to 1.417. So certainly a bit higher than the average trade estimate here. New crop stocks, of course with trend yield and with those March planting numbers 2.222 billion bushels. So this is the largest in seven years for stocks to use in five years. So right now, a little negative discussion on the corn side .”



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Winter wheat for the U.S. is forecast at 1.13 billion bushels, up 2 percent from 2022. BUT- the hard red winter wheat number is what matters to the southern plains. The HRW crop is predicted to be down 3 percent from a year ago at 514 million bushels in contrast to a 21% jump in SRW production this coming harvest.

Both the Oklahoma and Kansas are looking to be historically bad- and that's a big reason for the Kansas City HRW wheat futures jumping 35 cents a bushel on Friday after the report- and up another 19 cents a bushel early Monday AM in overnight trade)

As of April 30, the winter wheat crop in Kansas and Oklahoma was rated in poor to very poor condition at 64 percent and 61 percent, respectively. According to USDA- the 2023 Oklahoma crop is predicted to be significantly lower than in 2022.

In 2022, Oklahoma produced 68.6 million bushels of winter wheat. The 2023 forecast by USDA is sitting at 49.4 million bushels, which is about 28 percent less than the 2022 production numbers.

USDA estimates Oklahoma to yield 23 bushels per acre in 2023, which is below the 2022 yield of 28 bushels per acre.

This year's wheat crop- at that level- would be the worse since the 2014 crop of 47.6 million bushels.

BUT Kansas is even historically in worse shape. The 2023 Kansas crop is set up to be the worse since 1963- the last time that Kansas had a crop under 200 million bushels. The 2023 crop is predicted right now to be 191.4 million bushels- from 6.6 million acres at 29 bushels per acre. 1963 was a 185.5 million bushels on 8.6 million acres at 21.5 bushels per acre.

The Kansas crop under 200 million bushels caught the attention of the market and the 35 cent per bushel jump followed. (KC July settling at $8.77 on Friday- and $8.96 and change this morning)

Supreme Court’s Decision on Proposition 12 to Serve as Warning for Beef Producers to Prepare for Similar Initiatives

In this episode of Beef Buzz, I am talking with the Animal Agriculture Alliance president and CEO, Hannah Thompson-Weeman, about the Supreme Court ruling to uphold California’s Proposition 12, which mandates a wide array of animal production standards and would specifically ban the in-state sale of pork from hogs not raised in accordance with the California law, even if those hogs were raised in other states.

“Thus far, beef cattle have not been impacted by most of these ballot initiative campaigns,” Thompson-Weeman said. “They have been focused on chickens, egg-laying hens, pork, and then veal.”

While there have not been ballot initiatives targeting beef at a major level yet, Thompson-Weeman said beef has been included in some legislation aimed at other parts of animal agriculture, such as the use of Artificial Insemination.

“Certainly, it would be a false sense of security to think that beef isn’t going to be impacted by these types of campaigns,” Thompson-Weeman said.

Now is the time, Thompson-Weeman said, for the beef community to come together and be proactive about how to handle these ballot initiatives when they do come.

The Mother's Day weekend was a wet one in many locations across Oklahoma- and some of the extreme and exceptional drought areas got rains that could make a difference in the next Drought Monitor coming out later this week. Most notably- Osage and Kay Counties have gotten one to three inches of rain since last Thursday- helping the top soil moisture profile and refilling some ponds while maybe seeing a downgrade from Exceptional to Extreme drought in those areas in the Monitor. (You can click on the Mesonet map above to get the four day precipitation totals on a location by location basis in real time.)

Rains totally over 4 inches down in the Stillwater area also helping with soil profiles and ponds- and will likely make those areas in moderate drought or perhaps even reduced to just abnormally dry. Even Harmon County has received over an inch of rain- putting a small dent in their exceptional drought status.

In the northwest- rains have been more scattered but every shower is welcome- and the good news is that another rain making system seems to be on track in western counties this coming Thursday/Friday.

As for today- as we captured this map early this morning- it was still raining in several locations- so totals are changing.

For much of our wheat- the rains have come too late to help much- pasture and range conditions will be helped and prospects look better for spring planted crops for many producers. We are not out of the drought yet- but with the follow up rains in recent days- the tide may be changing in much of the state.

Sirloin Club Awards Kylee Deniz Agricultural Professional Award for 2023 Agriculturalists Under 40

On May 9, at the 2023 Sirloin Gallery of Grands, the Sirloin Club of Oklahoma announced their five award winners for the 2023 agriculturalists under 40. The Sirloin Club of Oklahoma is a group of agriculture enthusiasts who gather each year to support Oklahoma’s 4-H and FFA students. The Sirloin Club supports exhibitors at the Oklahoma Youth Expo and Tulsa State Fair in their premium sales and also sponsors the National Land and Range Judging Contest.

Over the next few days, we are showcasing the five award winners from five different categories: agricultural education, agricultural business, agricultural professional, crop production agriculturalist, and livestock production agriculturalist.

Today we spotlight Kylee Deniz of the Oklahoma Pork Council, who received the 2023 Agricultural Professional Award presented by the Sirloin Club of Oklahoma.

Deniz serves as the Executive Director of the Oklahoma Pork Council based in Oklahoma City. The Oklahoma Pork Council is a producer organization that represents the interests of pork producers in Oklahoma. As the leader of the association, Deniz works side-by-side with a highly respected board of directors, the National Pork Producers Council’s Iowa and Washington, D.C. offices, the National Pork Board, and a broad range of stakeholders to promote and protect Oklahoma’s pork industry.

Soybean Industry on the Rise as New Opportunities for Soy Continue to Grow

While at the National Association of Farm Broadcaster’s Washington Watch event in Washington, D.C., Farm Director KC Sheperd talked with the United Soybean Board executive committee, communication and education chair, Laurie Isley, about the latest work in the soybean industry.

“We are excited about a couple of different things,” Isley said. “One is the many, many new products that have been used that we know now that soybeans can be used in. Biofuels are certainly a big one. More and more of our soybean oil is going into that, but there are also other products.”

The uses for soybeans products are broad, Isley said, as soybeans are being utilized for tires, plywood, and more.

“Ninety-seven percent of our soybeans go into livestock, so there certainly is a strong partnership there between the soy producers and our livestock producers. We are always doing research at USB to continue to build that market for our meal as well as through our oil. We do some of that through exports and some of that through what we do for our domestic market."

The United Soybean Board conducts significant research related to health and nutrition, Isley said, aimed at helping farmers with production issues such as resistant weeds.

Annual Kansas Hard Red Winter Tour Starts Tuesday- Scouts Gather This Evening in Manhattan

The annual hard Red Winter Wheat Quality Tour starts on Tuesday, running thru through May 18. The tour, sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council, brings in participants from around the world who are tied to the wheat industry, but may not have ever been in fields. These individuals are able to interact with Kansas farmers, network with their peers, learn more about wheat production and assess the condition and yield potential of the hard winter wheat crop across the state of Kansas.

Participants gain a firsthand understanding of what it takes for farmers to grow, manage, harvest and market the crop. Over the three-day tour, they will canvass the state’s wheat crop from Manhattan to Colby to Wichita and back again. Along the way, they will stop every 15 miles or so to estimate yields in wheat fields on their routes. Every car will carry at least one Wheat Tour veteran who is not only familiar with the route, but also basic agronomy and the yield estimate formula. This allows participants to ask questions about the wheat that they are seeing, as well as diseases, growing conditions, field observations and more.

More than 600 crop evaluations will be made in wheat fields throughout the state, and yield estimates made using a formula developed by the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Editor's Note- with the rains seen over this past weekend- there may be muddy fields to navigate on at least Day One on Tuesday as the scouts go from Manhattan to Colby. Among the scouts will be the President of the Oklahoma Wheat Growers Association- Dennis Schoenhals of Kremlin- we hope to touch base with Dennis over the next couple of days to get his grower perspective from the tour. We always have kept tabs on the tour during the day via Twitter- we will confirm the hashtags to watch for in tomorrow's email.