Significant Improvements Seen in This Week’s Oklahoma Drought Monitor After Recent Moisture

According to the latest Oklahoma drought monitor, exceptional drought has moved from 0.52 to 0.42 percent since last week.

Extreme drought or worse has improved slightly, moving from last week’s 4.79 percent to this week’s 4.20 percent.

Severe drought or worse has improved greatly, moving from 14.26 percent last week to 9.12 percent this week.

Moderate drought or worse has improved as well, moving from last week’s 35.88 percent to this week’s 23.63 percent.

Abnormally dry or worse conditions saw significant improvements, moving from last week’s 73.77 percent to this week’s 56.96 percent.

According to the 6-10-day precipitation outlook map, the majority of the state, aside from the southern strip of the border, is at a near-normal chance of precipitation through July 22. As for the southern border, that portion of the state is leaning below a 33-40 percent chance of precipitation through that July 22 date.

To view this week's Oklahoma drought numbers, click the Oklahoma drought map above the story.



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Derrell Peel Sees Record High Retail Levels, but No Signs of Weaker Beef Demand

In this episode of Beef Buzz, I am talking with Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, Dr. Derrell Peel, about beef demand and more.

Beef demand looks resilient, Peel said, as he has been closely watching for signs of weakness or trading down over many months.

“If you look at the highest valued middle meats, the things like tenderloin, they have been pretty flat this year, not declining, but not going up,” Peel said. “We don’t expect them to go up in the summer. Seasonally, this is not the strongest time of the year for them.”

Looking at some of the other middle meats that are favorable for the grilling season, Peel said those have shown improvements lately. While beef demand may be flat seasonally following July 4th, Peel said, as a whole, he does not see any signs that beef demand has weakened significantly.

“We are at relatively high levels,” Peel said. “In fact, we are nearly at record levels from a retail price standpoint.”

U.S. Economic Slowdown Likely Ahead as Monetary Policy Actions Begin to Take Effect

The U.S. economy continues to defy gravity and remains strong despite lingering inflationary pressures, higher borrowing costs and a barrage of other headwinds. Consumers continue to spend aggressively on services, businesses are still investing and the labor market remains incredibly strong. Secure jobs are the most important element in consumer spending and well-employed Americans have powered the economic recovery for three years.

However, looming risks to the economy are increasing in number and size. According to a new quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, the full impact of monetary policy actions—raising interest rates, quantitative easing and contracting the money supply—have yet to be felt. Those policy actions, combined with depleted consumer savings, tighter commercial bank lending standards and the persistently inverted yield curve are likely to result in a mild recession by the fourth quarter of 2023.

“There is still a lot of wind at the back of this economy and we don’t believe a severe contraction is coming,” said Dan Kowalski, vice president of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “But we do believe it is important to not misinterpret delayed impacts for minimal impacts. Monetary effects can be slow in developing, and history tells us that the economy can seem just fine right before a recession hits.”

The labor market remains relatively tight, but the situation has improved significantly as female and non-native workers have stormed back into the work force. The labor force participation rate for women between the ages of 25-54 now stands at an all-time high, up more than 4 percentage points from the low in April 2020.

This Week on SUNUP is Oklahoma State University Extension grain market economist Kim Anderson. During this week’s edition, Anderson talks about the latest WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and Crop Production report released by USDA.

While Anderson did not have a pre-release estimate for world production, he said that number came in at 29.3 billion bushels. Last year, he said it was at 29.4 billion bushels.

“Less wheat worldwide than projected last year, “Anderson said.

Anderson said the U.S. estimate for wheat was well above trade expectations.

“We had above expectations for wheat production but still relatively low production and ending stocks,” Anderson said.

Hard red winter wheat ending stocks were at 277 million, Anderson said, and ending stocks were at 270 last year.

Forward contracting for the 2024 crop, Anderson said, is around seven dollars.

“If you look at those numbers, I think we are probably in the area where we should be, but we will have to wait and see what happens,” Anderson said.

CAB Insider: Carcass Weights Find Bottom Late

The fed cattle market traded slightly higher last week with the 5-area fed steer average at $182.06/cwt. Nebraska feedlots sold steers as high as $186/cwt. live and $290/cwt. on a dressed basis. The Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico market averaged $1.78/cwt. on just over 3,000 head sold in the negotiated cash market.

The total federally inspected cattle harvest was especially small last week with packing firms closed for Independence Day. Some of the large packing plants were also closed on Monday, July 3, resulting in just 62,000 head of fed cattle harvested compared to 100,000 head on Wednesday and Thursday.

So far this year only 7 weeks have featured a fed cattle slaughter larger than last year. On average, the weekly steer and heifer slaughter has been 15,000 head smaller in 2023, roughly a 3% change.

In the past three years the July fed cattle slaughter total has averaged 2.6% or 13,300 head-per-week larger than the rest of the year. However, Cattle on Feed estimates remain restricted and packers have been disciplined in keeping slaughter head counts low. Packer margins are estimated to remain positive at this time. But cutout values continue to slip while fed prices are steady to slightly higher. Given this scenario, the smaller slaughter trend should likely continue.

Indigo Ag Announces Program with Consolidated Grain and Barge Co.

Indigo Ag, the innovative leader and trusted partner in sustainable agriculture, announced a program with Consolidated Grain and Barge Co., a subsidiary of CGB Enterprises, Inc. and a leader in the grain and transportation industries, designed to quantify the environmental benefits of sustainably grown crops sourced by CGB.

Through its Market+ Source sustainable crop program, Indigo Ag will use its proprietary measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) capabilities to help CGB quantify the emissions factor for the grain they purchase from farmers using more sustainable farming practices. These grains would be purchased at a premium and ultimately sold to CGB customers looking to decarbonize their value chains, including food and beverage companies, ingredient companies and regenerative and sustainable fuel producers.



Indigo’s proprietary MRV capabilities use the highest scientific standards to quantify environmental benefits for companies participating in the Market+ Source program.

“As corporations look to achieve their Scope 3 emissions targets, the ability to quantify the environmental impact of sustainable practices with a high degree of certainty is critically important,” said Ron Hovsepian, president and CEO of Indigo Ag. “We are excited to work with companies like CGB who are demonstrating leadership in the industry by committing to help farmers make more money through the adoption of sustainable practices while reducing emissions in the ag value chain.”

Blayklee Stelzer Wins Junior Showmanship Title at the Junior National Hereford Expo

Several hundred youth from across the United States participated in the 2023 VitaFerm® Junior National Hereford Expo (JNHE), “Mad Dash to the Hereford Bash,” on July 11, in Madison, Wis.

Top placing Oklahoma exhibitors included Blayklee Stelzer, Oologah, Okla., who received the champion showman title in the Junior Division. Claire Collins, Frederick, Oklahoma claimed fifth place in that Division. (Junior Division Shown Above)

In the Intermediate category, Madilyn Norvell, Tuttle, Okla placed seventh.

And in the Peewee Division- four Oklahomans claimed places- Third place – Saylor Norvell, Tuttle, Okla. Fourth place – Ella Weldon, Piedmont, Okla., Eighth place – Taos Heck, Ada, Okla. and Ninth place – Kendall Devine, Chickasha, Okla

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