Derrell Peel Says Producers Are Finished Liquidating, but Herd Rebuilding is in Limbo

In this episode of Beef Buzz, I am talking with Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Dr. Derrell Peel, about cattle prices, herd rebuilding, and the impact of drought conditions on Oklahoma ranchers.

“We have seen a tremendous uptrend in markets,” Peel said. “It really started almost a year ago now, in the fourth quarter of 2022.”

Feeder cattle and fed cattle prices have all taken off, Peel said, and have increased continuously throughout the year. This trend, he added, is expected to continue going forward.

“Over the last six weeks or so, we have had extremely dry weather,” Peel said. “Very little, if any, precipitation in most cases, and so now we find ourselves, again, with drought conditions redeveloping pretty quickly here in Oklahoma.”

Because of the moisture received early enough in the summer, Peel said a good amount of hay was made available. Pasture conditions were good, he added, but those have eroded sharply in the last few weeks with this hot and dry weather.



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After hot and dry starts and finishes to the U.S. corn and soybean seasons of 2023, USDA will offer its first estimates of crop yields with input from field data at 11 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, Sept. 12. Two reports will be offered by Uncle Sam- the September Crop Production estimates from NASS and the monthly WASDE from the ERS.

The September Crop Production Report will include field data in USDA’s estimating process. For the 2023 US Corn crop- DTN Reports that the Dow Jones’ survey of 18 analysts has a range of yield guesses from 171.0 to 175.0 bushels per acre (bpa). The average estimate is for a 14.994-billion-bushel (bb) crop, based on a yield of 173.3 bushels per acre.

For soybeans, Dow Jones’ survey expects USDA to reduce its crop estimate from 4.205 bb to 4.139 bb, based on a national yield of 50.0 bushels per acre. The estimated yield range is relatively narrow, between 49.0 and 51.0 bushels per acre. Along with a smaller crop estimate, the survey expects USDA to lower its estimate of U.S. ending soybean stocks for 2023-24 from 245 million bushels (mb) to 213 mb, the lowest in eight years, if true.

For wheat– This remains a busy time of year for wheat as the Northern Hemisphere is finishing harvest and is just starting winter wheat planting. However- there will not be an update on the winter wheat production in the September Crop Production numbers- so the production estimates of August stand for now. That includes the Oklahoma Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop for 2023 estimated at 68.85 million bushels- virutally the same as the crop produced in 2022 while Kansas growing one of its smallest crops in several decades at 208 million bushels- down 15% from a relatively small 2022 crop. South of us in Texas- the 2023 harvest was much larger than the hard hit 2022 crop of 39 million bushels- the 2023 production estimate in August for Texas stands at 70 million bushels- a jump of 79 percent year over year.

OSU Rural Economic Outlook Conference to be held Oct. 11

The Oklahoma State University Department of Agricultural Economics will host the annual Rural Economic Outlook Conference on Oct. 11 at the ConocoPhillips OSU Alumni Center in Stillwater.

Hundreds of producers, ag lenders, Extension educators and policymakers from across the nation will meet for a full-day of guest speakers and informative sessions centered on this year’s Farm Bill.

“Two major factors that impact producers are farm policy and weather,” said Brent Ladd, assistant OSU Extension specialist for agricultural economics. “This conference will provide attendees with applicable information when planning for the future.”

The lineup of speakers includes Bart Fischer, co-director of the Agricultural & Food Policy Center and research assistant professor at Texas A&M University, and Brian Bledsoe, chief meteorologist, KKTV 11 News in Colorado Springs.

“We will examine many key issues that may significantly affect decisions made by agricultural lenders, community and rural leaders, and people in similar positions during the coming year,” Ladd said.

The U.S. Grains Council’s (USGC’s) 2023 sorghum programming has sparked significant interest among Chinese coarse grain importers, serving to further solidify U.S. sorghum’s Chinese market share. The Council’s April 2023 trade mission to China and the corresponding Export Sorghum conference in June connected Chinese buyers responsible for roughly 70 percent of all exported sorghum purchases with U.S. merchants and suppliers. This programming gave U.S. sorghum’s largest customer a firsthand look into the care and specialization applied to U.S. sorghum cultivation, reinforcing U.S. producers’ reputation for consistently providing the world’s highest quality grain sorghum. The weeks following USGC’s China-focused sorghum programming saw immediate increases in export figures.

“USGC’s programming has China buyers talking about U.S. origin sorghum and buying large quantities,” said Jace Hefner, USGC manager of global trade. “With domestic feed costs increasing in China, the premium for U.S. sorghum is being driven by demand for baijiu – the most widely consumed spirit in the world. But demand from the livestock industry remains strong as well. We anticipate these purchases continuing through the fall of 2023.” According to the most recent U.S. Department of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System (USDA GATS) data, sorghum continues to maintain a 10-year average total trade value more than $1.3 billion. In this 10-year time frame, China has maintained its stronghold in U.S. sorghum purchasing. China currently represents 80.7% of the total trade value in U.S. sorghum purchases.

Congresswoman Bice Introduces Bill to Stop Foreign Adversaries from Purchasing American Land

Congresswoman Stephanie Bice (OK-05) recently spoke with the Washington Examiner about her new legislation, The Stop CCP Land Act, which incentivizes states to prohibit countries such as China and Russia from purchasing American agricultural land. Read more below.

Washington Examiner – Reese Gorman

Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-OK) introduced the Stop China’s Continuous Purchase of Land Act, which would take a state-focused approach to stop countries like China and Russia from purchasing land in America.

Her bill looks to incentivize states not to allow the sale of agricultural land to all countries on the State Department’s Defense Trade Control Country Policies List and Russia by restricting access to certain federal grants and programs that were made available in the Inflation Reduction Act.

It would also require the secretary of agriculture to submit a report to Congress on how the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act should be updated to ensure more accurate documentation, reporting, and monitoring of foreign ownership of agricultural land.

In addition, the bill would require the Comptroller General at the Government Accountability Office to submit a report “assessing the bill’s impact and report on any measures that can be taken to better secure real estate in the United States from foreign manipulation” within 90 days of the bill being enacted.

Our own KC Sheperd took part in the Read an Accurate Ag Book Event promoted by the Oklahoma Ag n the Classroom team.

Here's KC's play by play on how things went:

"I read “The Dirt Book” on September 6^th to several classrooms for Read an Accurate Ag Book Week. This is the 2^nd year I’ve gotten to do this, and We had about 8 classrooms online listening to the story. These kiddos asked the best questions after I finished reading!

"This book is filled with fun, creepy things that live in the dirt, but I also had the opportunity to talk about the importance of Dirt to our farmers. I told the kiddos about wheat planting season going on right now, and how we would love the dirt to be a little bit wetter, but that our farmers will dust it in and wait for the next rain so that we can soon see sprouts of wheat!

"We also talked about Cotton, Soybeans, Potatoes, and peanuts all growing in the dirt!"