Oklahoma's Latest Farm
And Ranch News
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023 | | | |
Cow and Heifer Slaughter Indicates Continued Herd Liquidation |
Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry as part of the weekly series known as the “Cow Calf Corner,” published electronically by Dr. Peel and Mark Johnson. Today, Dr. Peel talks about indications of continued herd liquidation.
The January 1, 2023 Cattle inventory report included a beef cow herd of 28.9 million head, down 3.6 percent year over year and the smallest beef cow total since 1962. More importantly going forward, the report also included an inventory of beef replacement heifers of 5.16 million head, down 5.8 percent from the previous year. The replacement heifer total included the inventory of heifers expected to calve of 3.17 million, down 5.1 percent year over year. Both the replacement heifer total and heifers expected to calve were the lowest since 2011.
The available supply of bred heifers (heifers expected to calve), combined with beef cow culling this year will determine the change in the beef cow inventory this year. From the beginning of the year, the supply of bred heifers meant that beef cow slaughter in 2023 would have to decrease sharply…in excess of 18 percent year over year…in order to avoid additional herd liquidation this year. Figure 1 shows that beef cow slaughter has been lower in 2023 compared to last year. Cumulative beef cow slaughter reached a maximum year over year decrease of 13.8 percent in early September…a significant decrease, but not enough to prevent additional herd liquidation. The July Cattle report confirmed that the beef cow herd was down by 2.6 percent from 2022 levels by mid-year.
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