Kitchen table math can be a chore this time of year, as U.S. wheat farmers shovel their crop production costs into calculators, hoping the numbers they scoop out next year will be magically heavier than those they tossed in this year.

But here’s a secret about the math of farming: it isn’t really magic.

“There’s a lot of work and a lot of luck involved in making a profit in our business,” is how U.S. Wheat Associates Chairman Michael Peters put it. “The numbers are rarely where you need them to be or where you want them to be.”

An important thing for customers of U.S. wheat to keep in mind is that input costs and the prices farmers receive for their crops each year go a long way toward determining which crops farmers choose to plant the next year.

“The goals of a U.S. farmer are to help feed the world and to also feed our own families,” said Peters, who grows wheat and raises beef cattle in Oklahoma. “We make a lot of decisions each year based on market conditions and expenses. And those are two things that tend to go up and down a lot. They are never stagnant.”



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At Just a Month Away, Fourth Cattlemen’s Congress in OKC Expects Over 8,000 Entries

As the 2024 Cattlemen’s Congress edges closer, I am visiting with the Executive Vice President of the show, Bray Haven, in this episode of Beef Buzz.

The show will run from December 30, 2023, through January 11, 2024, at the Oklahoma City Fairgrounds.

“It is really hard to believe we are rolling around on number four and that the people of Oklahoma and cattlemen across the country have embraced Cattlemen’s Congress like they have,” Haven said.

Haven said the deadline for entries has passed, but they are still taking a few late entries. Entries right now are near 8000, Haven said, and he projects that the entries will total close to 9000 by the time of the show.

“We are right around the same numbers we have been the past several years; right around that 8000-entry mark,” Haven said.

Wells Christmas Tree Farm Spreads Christmas Cheer Across the State

Farm Director, KC Sheperd is talking with Jesse Wells about his family’s Christmas Tree Farm. The Wells Christmas Tree Farm is located in Norman, Oklahoma, and offers Christmas tree cuttings, events, activities, photo opportunities, and shopping for the whole family.

Wells Christmas Tree Farm is currently open from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. on the weekends and 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. on weekdays.

“Out here at the farm, we have food trucks and live Christmas music,” Wells said. “We will have Santa Claus and (live) reindeer, and just all kinds of fun games, toys, and outdoor games for the kids to play.”

While they primarily grow pine trees at their farm, Wells said they also have a variety of trees from different states because some trees grow better in the environment up north.

“We have some of the most beautiful trees around, and we also bring trees in from the northern states,” Wells said.

This Week on SUNUP is Oklahoma State University Extension grain market economist Kim Anderson. During this week’s edition, Anderson talks about the latest news in the crop markets. 

Anderson said wheat prices are around $5.70, up about 25 cents over the last week.

“If you go back a couple of weeks, we said that prices were going to be erratic over the holiday season and that is what we saw last week,” Anderson said. “Prices on wheat coming down, really no reason. There are just more sellers in the market than buyers. They came back up this week.”

Anderson said that corn prices are down to around $4.40 because the U.S. harvest was higher than expected. From late October to now, Anderson said the price of corn has continued to decline.

Anderson said that soybeans have been a bright spot, as many farmers’ crops turned out better than expected in yields. Soybean prices are up around $12.90, Anderson added.

USDA Makes Producer-Friendly Change to 2023 Notice of Loss Requirements for Two Livestock Disaster Assistance Programs

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has waived certain notice of loss requirements for 2023 for the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-raised Fish (ELAP) and Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP). In an effort to streamline assistance to support access to critical 2023 natural disaster recovery assistance, USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) is waiving the requirement to submit ELAP or LIP notices of loss within a pre-determined number of days for 2023. Instead, producers have the flexibility to submit 2023 notices of loss as soon as possible, once losses are realized, following a natural disaster event or no later than the established annual program application for payment deadlines for each program. FSA county committees are also being asked to re-evaluate 2023 ELAP and LIP late-filed notices of loss to determine if the waiver applies. 

“Our goal is to get producers into these disaster programs, and they are always encouraged to turn in an application if they believe they are eligible,” said FSA Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “Program improvements are only effective if we ensure producers have sufficient time and information needed to submit their application. The ELAP and LIP waivers we are announcing today, in response to historic disasters in 2023, improve efficiencies for producers and our staff, are responsive to feedback about confusion regarding program timelines and are intended to give our staff the time needed to deliver the right support to producers when they need it most. These waivers are also reflective of FSA’s efforts to integrate improvements and accessibility into our policy decisions. It’s critical that we increase awareness of these program flexibilities so all producers can participate.” 

Latest USDA Forecast: Smaller – but Still Significant – Farm Income Drop

USDA’s most recent Farm Sector Income Forecast, released Nov. 30, projected a smaller – but still significant – drop in 2023 net farm income compared to August estimates. The $41.7 billion (23%) decline forecast in August was adjusted to a $31.8 billion (17%) drop for a total net farm income of $151 billion expected for 2023 (compared to $141 billion estimated in August). When adjusted for inflation, net farm income, a broad measure of farm profitability, is expected to decrease 20%, or $37.9 billion, from 2022. If realized, 2023 net farm income would be above the 2003-2022 average in inflation-adjusted dollars. The most significant factor influencing the revision is production expenses, estimated to increase 4%, or $14.9 billion, over 2022 compared to the 7%, or $29.5 billion, increase forecast in August’s report for a total of $443 billion across the farm economy. Even with this adjustment, production expenses remain forecast at their highest levels to date. Net farm income reflects income after expenses from production in the current year and is calculated by subtracting farm expenses from gross farm income.

Direct government payments are estimated to decrease by $3.5 billion, or 22%, between 2022 and 2023 to $12.1 billion. This marks the third consecutive annual decrease in government payments for producers since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and is lower than the $12.6 billion in payments forecast in February. Ad hoc and supplemental program payments, which include payments from the Emergency Relief Program (ERP), Quality Loss Adjustment Program and other farm bill designated-disaster programs, are expected to decrease from $11.5 billion to $6.41 billion, a 44% decline and less than the $7.4 billion in payments originally forecast in August under the category. Given the announcement of some limited additional funds to extend ERP to cover 2022 disaster losses, future estimations in this category will likely be revised upward.