Oklahoma's Latest Farm
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Dr. Derrell Peel Says Feedlot Inventories Are Unchanged from Last Year Despite Shrinking Calf Crop |
Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry as part of the weekly series known as the “Cow Calf Corner,” published electronically by Dr. Peel and Mark Johnson. Today, Dr. Peel talks about the current state of feedlot inventories.
The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report pegged August 1 feedlot inventories at 11.1 million head, unchanged from one year ago. Because of the strong seasonal variation in feedlot inventories, a twelve-month moving average of feedlot inventories is the best means to see the actual trend in feedlot production. The moving average total of feedlot inventories peaked cyclically in September 2022 at 11.887 million head before declining to 11.548 million head in September 2023. Total feedlot placements have decreased by 1.3 percent in the last twelve months compared to the previous twelve-month period. However, in the last year, average feedlot inventories have increased to 11.636 million head. Feedlot inventories have risen countercyclically due to continued feeding of heifers and increased days on feed. Feedlots have slowed the feedlot turnover rate enough to keep average monthly inventories higher despite fewer cattle entering feedlots.
Current feedlot inventories mask the continued decline in feeder cattle in the U.S. Figure 1 shows the U.S. calf crop from 2008 to 2023 with a projected 2024 calf crop of 33.1 million head. At that level, the total calf crop is down 3.22 million head from the 2018 cyclical peak. The projected 2024 calf crop is the smallest total U.S. calf crop since about 1941 (based on estimated calf crop prior to 1960).
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Tim West
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Radio Oklahoma Ag Network
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Radio Oklahoma Ag Network
405.473.6144
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