On last week’s Crop Progress Report, winter wheat conditions in Oklahoma fell 9 percentage points from the previous week to 37 percent good to excellent. Oklahoma Wheat Commission’s Mike Schulte says drought is just one more challenge that Oklahoma wheat producers are dealing with.

“Producers certainly are facing some challenging times, just with the overall crop this past year from planting,” Schulte said. “We have had an extremely dry winter and they are trying to make those management decisions about what they are going to do.”

He noted that producers in Southwest Oklahoma are deciding whether to see out their wheat crops to maturity or rip them up to plant cotton. In the Central and Northern regions, the wheat was planted so late that it is emerging from dormancy much smaller than usual, and combined with a lack of rainfall and high, drying winds, producers are really praying for rain.

Weather forecasts predict a wetter, cooler trend moving into April, which is creating a higher degree of optimism for the wheat crop.

Oklahoma Farm Bureau works to improve the lives of all Oklahomans by supporting our state’s agriculture community. As Oklahoma’s largest general farm organization led by Oklahoma farmers and ranchers, OKFB takes grassroots values and advocates for agriculture at the state Capitol and in Washington, D.C., to ensure our way of life continues for generations to come.

Farm Bureau hosts leadership events, supports our state’s agricultural youth and connects consumers with agriculture in order to build a brighter future for our state. Become an OKFB member today online at okfarmbureau.org/join. Together, we are rural Oklahoma.

As we wrap up March- which has included historic wind and some hail across many parts of Oklahoma- it looks like we could have significant rain dead ahead- more in southeastern Oklahoma- less in the Northwest. Heaviest rains will roll in as we welcome the OKC Farm Show Thursday through Saturday.

Meanwhile- As we start the week- there is Red Flag fire danger for the Panhandle- Here's the word from the National Weather Service in Amarillo- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE ENTIRE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a Red Flag Warning for strong winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday. (Blowing dust will be common Tuesday in our Panhandle counties)

Over this past weekend- some rain arrived- see the Mesonet graphic below- Vinita was the weekend winner with 1.3 inches of rain. (The map is clickable so you can see who exactly got how much)

More on the active weather pattern as the week unfolds.

OCA’s Michael Kelsey: State Lawmakers Have Hit Halfway Point of 2025 Session

Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays caught up with the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association’s Executive Vice President, Michael Kelsey, to get a legislative update about what is being done in the Oklahoma State Capitol.

The Oklahoma House and Senate deadline week has just ended, and the two legislative branches must have their bills in the hands of the other. Kelsey said that the legislative session is at about the halfway point. He noted that the House passes an abundance of bills compared to that of the Senate, making for an interesting progression through the remainder of the legislative session.

“Traditionally, the House and the Senate start squaring off over the budget a little later in the sessions, but so far, they have been communicating and doing very well together,” Kelsey observed hopefully.

Concerning the budget, funding for OSU’s College of Veterinary Medicine is a top priority for OCA. Also on their list is landowner property rights related to green energy. Kelsey noted a setback bill regarding wind energy has been advanced. They are also watching legislation related to fertilizer specific to city sewage, which advanced a moratorium to spread it from the Senate this week.

Farmers Business Network (FBN) has released its annual survey of planted acres, offering insights ahead of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report due out at 11 AM today. Farm Director KC Sheperd caught up with Cody Bills, representing FBN, who shared key findings, highlighting significant shifts in crop acreage across the United States.

“This is the fifth year that we’ve done this survey, and we’ve been really happy with our results over the last four years,” Bills stated, emphasizing the survey’s reliability. “We’ve had a standard error, standard mean error of about 1.2 million acres. Now that seems like a lot, but when you think about it in terms of percent, it’s just a 1.33% standard error.” He further noted the survey’s accuracy compared to analyst estimates: “That compares to an average analyst guess that has about a 2.04 standard error…just about 35% more accurate than the average analyst guess.”

The survey, which garnered responses from nearly 1,000 FBN members, primarily focused on corn and soybean acreage. “The way I think about this report is it is a corn and soybean acreage report. That’s where we have the most confidence because we have the most participants reporting on their corn and soybean acreage,” Bills explained.

Key findings indicate a notable increase in corn acreage. “Corn acres, according to the data, suggests that we would see 95 and a half million acres. So that’s up 4.9 million acres from last year, and it’s about one and a half million acres above that ag outlook forum that was released in in January,” Bills reported. Conversely, soybean acreage is projected to decrease. “Soybeans, it’s pointing more toward 83 and a half million acres. So that’s down 3.6 million acres from last year, and about 500,000 acres below what the Ag Outlook Forum suggested.”

The $10 billion in economic aid passed as part of the American Relief Act of 2025 in December is headed to farmers as the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP). The aid comes at a time of acute need in farm country, when a combination of low commodity prices, high input prices, and an outdated and ineffective safety net left farmers deep in the red in 2024.

The Emergency Commodity Assistance Program is a one-time payment to farmers administered by USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA). Congress laid out the formula for ECAP in the American Relief Act of 2025, as explained in a previous Market Intel from January with estimates in striking distance of the final USDA payment rates. Essentially, the per-acre payments were set as either a percentage of estimated losses per-acre for each commodity or as a percentage of the commodity’s reference price. Eligible commodities will receive a prescribed per-acre payment on all planted acres and on 50% of acres prevented from being planted. Acres planted for harvest, grazing, haying, silage or other similar purposes in the 2024 crop year qualify. The per-acre payments as set by the USDA are found in the table below on the linked page.

Notably, the initial round of payments will only pay 85% of the per-acre payment to ensure that enough funding is available for all farmers who sign up. After the ECAP application period closes on August 15, a second payment may be issued with the remaining funds up to the additional 15% of the per-acre payments. Farmers can estimate their total expected payments using a USDA-provided ECAP calculator.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins will visit six international markets in her first six months as Secretary to expand markets and boost American agricultural exports. At a time when the agricultural trade deficit is at nearly $50 billion following the previous administration’s little to no action in the international marketplace, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is working to diversify global markets, strengthen existing markets, and hold existing trading partners accountable for their end of the deal.

“President Trump has the backs of our farmers and ranchers,” said Secretary Rollins. “USDA remains committed to expanding market access around the world. I am going abroad to sell the bounty of American agriculture and to ensure the prosperity of our hard-working agricultural producers. Everything is on the table to get more markets for our products.”

This year, Secretary Rollins will visit Vietnam, Japan, India, Peru, Brazil, and the United Kingdom. Other USDA Trade Missions include Hong Kong, the Dominican Republic, Taiwan, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mexico.

Proposed Port Service Fees Would Impact Red Meat Exports

The office of U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) held hearings this week on a proposal to impose a service fee for each U.S. port call of a Chinese-operated ship, or a per-net-ton service fee applied on the ship’s carrying capacity. 

The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) submitted comments supporting the overall intent of strengthening the U.S. shipbuilding industry, but pointing out that the proposed fees could price some products like variety meats out of the marketplace and could dramatically reduce port calls in key locations such as the Port of Oakland, which is the largest outlet for waterborne red meat exports. It is a key gateway for chilled meat shipments to Asian markets.

According to USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom, it would take years for the U.S. shipbuilding industry to rebuild to meet the needs of U.S. agriculture and other exporters. Under the port fee proposal, options for those exporters would be very limited while that rebuilding takes place. USMEF joined more than 300 agricultural and business associations in submitting a letter to USTR outlining those concerns.