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Agricultural News


Pro Farmer Predicts Smaller Corn Crop Forecast by USDA and Similar Sized Soybean Production

Sun, 28 Aug 2011 20:19:50 CDT

Pro Farmer Predicts Smaller Corn Crop Forecast by USDA and Similar Sized Soybean Production Pro Farmer reported the results of its 2011 crop tour. Pro Farmer pegs the 2011 U.S. corn crop at 12.484 billion bushel with an average yield 147.9 bushels per acre. As for the U.S. soybean crop, Pro Farmer sets production at 3.083 billion bushels with an average yield of 41.8 bushels per acre. Pro Farmer Editors say the slight uptick in the bean yield estimate from USDA's August 1 yield is the result of, quote, - one of the most disease-free bean crops we've ever seen on Tour. Pro Farmer expects USDA will eventually lower harvested acres for both corn and soybeans.


In Ohio, Pro Farmer crop tour participants found an immature corn crop which could be helped by late season rains and an extended growing season. In Indiana, the tour found dry weather stress. Test weights will be light. The Illinois corn crop was found to be typical. In Iowa, much variation was reported. The tour considered Southwest Iowa - a disaster, but better potential was found in eastern and central Iowa. In Minnesota it's been too dry to produce a good corn crop. In Nebraska, good ear length and solid weight don't make up for missing ears. And in South Dakota, the crop looks really similar to last year's.


In the nation's soybean fields, Pro Farmer Crop Scouts found in Ohio, pod counts are up from year ago, but they need time and water to finish strong. In Indiana, disease and bug pressures were limited. Rains are the key to Indiana's soybean future. In Illinois, the northern half of the crop has plenty of moisture to finish with a good yield. Pro Farmer Scouts see a record yield in Iowa, with one more rain. In Minnesota, dry weather stress has taken its toll. Scouts say Nebraska's beans show far fewer problems than excellent beans. And in South Dakota, a lack of disease and one more rain means the bean crop has a chance at a really good finish.


From the Pro Farmer website- here is the state by state breakdown for the corn and soybean crops for 2011:


CORN

Ohio: 160 bu. per acre. The corn crop in Ohio is variable and immature, with many Tour samples still in the milk stage. The immaturity of the Ohio corn crop means it has greater potential to add bushels with late-season rains and an extended growing season.


Indiana: 146.7 bu. per acre. Corn in the Hoosier State shows the impact of stressful conditions throughout the growing season. After a severely delayed start, conditions turned hot and dry. Early denting and poor plant health are clear signs this crop has been pushed too hard. Test weights will be light.


Illinois: 154.8 bu. per acre. Parts of the state show promise, but there's too much stress and poor plant health to produce a "typical" Illinois crop. The challenge will be to preserve yield potential and get it to the bin.


Iowa: 164 bu. per acre. Southwest Iowa is a disaster. Crop Districts 1 and 4 will be better than last year, but not good enough to make up for bushels lost in the southwest corner. Eastern and central Iowa have solid yield potential, but the Tour failed to find many big yields.


Minnesota: 169 bu. per acre. It's too dry in Minnesota. The stress has been around too long and the corn crop is looking at a 2010-like finish. The crop had great potential but missed too many rains after pollination.


Nebraska: 165 bu. per acre. Good ear length and solid weight don't make up for missing ears. That was the problem in Nebraska, with ear counts down 2% from year ago.


South Dakota: 140.5 bu. per acre. This crop looks really similar to last year's.



SOYBEANS

Ohio: 45 bu. per acre. Pod counts are up from a year ago, but they are flat. The crop needs time and water to finish strong, but has potential for solid yields.


Indiana: 44 bu. per acre. Disease and bug pressure were limited. That suggests the Indiana bean crop could add bushels if there are timely late-season rains.


Illinois: 49 bu. per acre. Rains rolled through parts of Illinois during the Tour. The northern half of the crop has plenty of moisture to finish with a good yield.


Iowa: 53 bu. per acre. Last year's SDS was replaced with fields of green beans and plenty of plant health. Give this Iowa crop one more rain, and we'll see a record yield for the state in 2011.


Minnesota: 39 bu. per acre. Good plant health cannot overcome soils that are just too dry. This crop has been under stress since pod-set. A rain now probably wouldn't recover 100% of lost yield potential.


Nebraska: 52.5 bu. per acre. Disease-free soybeans with no bugs in Nebraska and a crop that can be irrigated at just the right time makes it really hard to be pessimistic about the Husker bean crop. Nebraska's beans aren't without problems, but there are far fewer problems than excellent beans.


South Dakota: 39 bu. per acre. We think USDA got too pessimistic with its Aug. 1 estimate of the South Dakota bean crop. It does need one more rain to finish well. Across the Corn Belt, a lack of disease means the bean crop has a chance at a really good finish.



   

 

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