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Agricultural News

Drought Likely to Continue to Sit Right on Top of Oklahoma for the Balance of 2011

Thu, 29 Sep 2011 20:27:37 CDT

Drought Likely to Continue to Sit Right on Top of Oklahoma for the Balance of 2011 Persistent Drought will likely stay right on top of Oklahoma for the balance of this calendar year. According to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, there seems to be little evidence of the drought that is mostly in the D4 stage- or Exceptional Drought stage- will be mitigated anytime soon.

According the latest commentary that goes with the map above:

The drought outlook for September 15, 2011 December 2011 was based primarily upon climate anomalies associated with La Niña as it is expected to strengthen and continue throughout this period. Persistence or development can be expected across much of the Southeast excluding North Carolina and areas soaked by Tropical Storm Lee. The return of La Niña also elevates the chances for persistence across the exceptional drought areas of the southern Plains. It should be noted that forecast confidence across the western Gulf region and Southeast is tempered due to the potential for heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone activity during the fall. The waning of the summer monsoon and enhanced odds for below median precipitation during October December favor persistence or development across most of the Southwest. Based on consecutive La Niña composites, persistence or development is favored across the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. A slightly drier climatology from October through December tilts the odds towards persistence for the small drought areas in the northwest Corn Belt and upper Mississippi Valley. Across Hawaii, drought persistence is forecast for the western Big Island, Molokai, and Maui since the wet signal associated with La Niña typically becomes established later in the winter.



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