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Agricultural News

Kim Anderson: Wheat Price Declines Don't Mean We're In a Declining Market--Yet

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 17:25:23 CST

Kim Anderson: Wheat Price Declines Don't Mean We're In a Declining Market--Yet Wheat price breaks of about 60 cents in the last week have some concerned the market is establishing a downward trend, but OSU’s Kim Anderson doesn’t think that is the case. He says we have another 20 or 30 cents to go before that trend would be established. He thinks March futures contracts would have to break the $6.35 mark and July contracts would have to break $6.50 before he would call a downward trend.

A lot of factors are making the markets nervous this week, Anderson says. There’s a lot going on in Greece and with the Euro.

“One day you can make payments, the next day you can’t. One day a bailout package is ready, the next day it’s not.”

That impacts the value of the dollar which, when it goes up, makes American wheat more expensive on the export market.

He says planted acres are up 5.6 percent this year and ending stocks are expected to be up about 100 million bushels next year as well.

“You’re looking at relatively higher production and increasing stocks in the world. There’s just a lot of negatives out there for wheat prices,” he says.

As for wheat prices at harvest time, Anderson says he is expecting them to be about $5.75.   

In addition to Kim Anderson’s analysis of the grain markets, this week on SUNUP:
--Jeff Edwards demonstrates how to identify first hollow stem in wheat pasture.
--In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk gives advice on maintaining nutrition and growth rates as cows enter breeding season.
--Derrell Peel looks at the market trends for spring and explains whether high beef prices are translating into profits for producers.
--SUNUP travels to Pauls Valley for a no-till planter maintenance workshop presented by Randy Taylor.
--In the Mesonet report, Gary McManus shows us the improving drought index and compares our recent temperatures to the same period last year.
--Finally, SUNUP talks with Paul Weisenfeld, who leads the Bureau for Food Security for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), about the ways Oklahoma farmers have shared their techniques in developing countries.

Catch SUNUP Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. on OETA.



Kim Anderson analyzes this week's decline in wheat prices.
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