Agricultural News
Drought Persists as Another Warm, Dry Winter Sets Up Across Oklahoma
Thu, 18 Oct 2012 11:09:57 CDT
Recent rains across much of the state have improved Oklahoma's drought conditions, but only by a miniscule amount reports Associate State Climatologist Gary McManus.
Oklahoma's severe-exceptional drought figures fell from 99.71 percent to 99.43 percent according to the just-released U.S. Drought Monitor. The portion of the state experiencing extreme-exceptional drought saw a substantial drop, however, from 81% to 67%. The amount of exception drought also improved from 31% to 27%.
Much of the Great Plains westward is still experiencing severe-exceptional drought just in time for the climatological drop in precipitation, unfortunately. What improvements were seen are due to a couple of nice rainfall events over the last 30 days or so. That moisture has improved the soil moisture situation, at least in the upper soils at the 2- and 10-inch levels.
The big problem area remains in northern Oklahoma, parts of which have now gone more than a month without at least a quarter inch of rain in a single day.
The reason 99% of the state is still covered by severe-exceptional drought becomes obvious when looking at rainfall deficits since May 1. Statewide, the deficit for that period is still running at 8.9 inches, and ranks as the 3rd driest such span since 1921. For north central Oklahoma, it is the driest since 1921. Much of north central Oklahoma is running more than 12 inches below normal and less than 6 inches of actual rainfall since May 1.
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting warmer and drier-than-normal conditions for the rest of October. The CPC also sees a warmer-than-normal November, and a possibly drier-than-normal month in the northeast sections of the state. The rest of the state has equal chances of above-, below-, or near-normal conditions.
All of that together spells a Seasonal Drought Outlook from the CPC that looks for drought persistence or intensification for the northern half of the state and the possibility of some improvement in the southern half of the state, although the drought will still be ongoing, though February.
The reason for the pessimistic outlook, McManus says, is that the developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean which could have brought some relief to Oklahoma has fizzled. A very weak El Nino now seems more likely as the state transitions into the driest part of the year from its secondary wet season.
The uncertainty of El Nino development does lead the CPC forecasters to place low confidence in the outlooks, but the prospects for moisture this winter across Oklahoma looks remote, McManus says.
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