Agricultural News
Drought Likely to Continue Through Winter, Climatologist Says
Thu, 15 Nov 2012 10:58:17 CST
Gary McManus, Associate State Climatologist looks at the latest Mesonet numbers and says all indications are the drought will continue across the state throughout the winter.
Drought advanced in parts of the state and retreated in others, but all in all, the drought in Oklahoma is just about the same this week as last week. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor map for the state tells the story of the changes in impacts following the rain over last weekend.
Severe drought (D2) extend farther to the southwest into Grady County and also up through Tulsa County in the northeast. There is still a very small area of moderate (D1) drought up in the far northeastern corner of the state as well. We also saw that exceptional (D4) drought expand in the Panhandle to cover all of Beaver County now. So the percentage of remained virtually unchanged at 32%, while the D3 dropped by about 4%. The area of the state covered by severe-exceptional (D2-D4) remained just a tad under 100%.
If things don't change in a hurry, November is on its way to a dismal finish. Through the 15th, the state has had an average of 0.54 inches of rain, nearly an inch below normal. It's normally one of our drier months anyway, regardless of deficits.
The next five days are forecast to be mostly dry, although there is expected to be a little bit of rain with a storm system early next week. The amounts at this time are expected to be pretty light, however.
At this time, the remainder of November looks fairly warm and dry with increased odds of warmer and drier than normal weather forecast by the NWS' Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The worrisome part there is that drier than normal this time of the year is REALLY dry.
December and seasonal outlooks from the CPC show no large-scale climate factors influencing Oklahoma's weather patterns. Possible warmer-than-normal temperatures may creep up from the south. The new winter outlook (Dec-Feb) brings those chances for above normal temperatures into the state, but also slightly increased odds of above normal precipitation into the eastern quarter of Oklahoma.
Given all of that, the new U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook from the CPC still has little in the way of encouragement for Oklahoma with drought persisting or intensifying over the next few months.
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