Agricultural News
Cow Herd Rebuilding Faces Uncertainty, But High Calf Prices Provide Incentive
Wed, 16 Jan 2013 11:56:34 CST
Drought prevailed across much of the country in 2012, especially across much of Oklahoma and Texas. Cattle producers liquidated large portions of their herds in 2011 and into 2012. Dr. David Anderson, professor and economist in Livestock and Food Products Marketing with the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, says we'll know more about the exact size of the remaining herd and the magnitude of the rebuilding job facing producers when the USDA's Cattle Inventory report is released later this month.
"The cattle inventory report comes out in a couple of weeks. I think the most interesting number in the thing is going to be the number of replacement heifers held back to enter the herd. I've got to believe that even though prices are attractive, when you look at the drought monitor map, it's going to be pretty tough for people to have held back many heifers. And that really sets us up for when we can actually have that expansion. Is it 2014 that we could see it starting? Or is it even later? And I think it really hinges on those drought conditions from Texas to the Great Plains because that's where a big majority of our cow herd is. It's in those states."
Oklahoma was already at a low number from the drought in 2011 and had a little more sell off in 2012. Are the numbers so low that it is now extra hard to rebuild the herd?
"It really does make it harder because with fewer cows, they have fewer calves so our available supply of replacements is smaller. And to find the ones that you want, that you're looking for, certainly the buy-back-in prices are much higher. And that's a deterrent to expanding even if everything else was right, the high price of those replacements-because we have very few of them-even further holds back or slows down expansion in the herd."
Anderson says that with calf prices at record highs, producers may find making the decision to expand or get back into cow-calf operations won't be that difficult when the weather finally stabilizes.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network- but is also a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show- and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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