Agricultural News
Drought Improves In Short Term Forecasts, Continues Over the Long Run
Thu, 07 Feb 2013 10:20:49 CST
The latest Drought Monitor shows welcome improvement for a drought-weary state, says Associate State Climatologist Gary McManus. Forecast rains for this weekend and early next week could improve that picture even more.
There was a good bit of improvement from the northeast down through southeastern Oklahoma. There was a downgrade of the western Panhandle from Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3). The amount of D4 stayed the same at 40%, but the amount of D3 dropped to 90% or so. It's not a massive improvement, but it's progress in the proper direction, McManus says.
Unfortunately, the far western Panhandle, as well as the northwestern and southwestern corners of the state, have not gotten the good moisture. In fact, it has now been from 28 through 116 days since those areas have seen at least a quarter-inch of rainfall. Go down to at least a tenth of an inch and those numbers stay the same for the most part, except it's been 54 days since Kenton has seen that amount in a single day.
The latest 7-day rain forecast from the HPC predicts about a tenth of an inch in the Panhandle to more than an inch in the east.
Looking out a bit further, the 8-14 day CPC Outlooks show increased odds of normal precipitation amounts and below normal temperatures over that Feb. 14-20 time frame.
Unfortunately, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook hasn't improved over the map released two weeks ago, at least for Oklahoma. The CPC forecasters still have Oklahoma in that "drought persisting or intensifying" area through the end of April.
Forecasters acknowledge the moisture in the short-term, but they see drier conditions over the long term. In their words:
"Widespread precipitation during late December and early January was replaced by much drier conditions since mid-month, halting drought improvement in Texas and actually producing some deterioration in central sections. Precipitation is expected to return during the next week, but be mainly confined to eastern sections. Then, the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks tilt the odds in favor of above median precipitation in southern and eastern areas. However, the CPC (Feb-Apr) outlooks and the (forecast) models all indicate enhanced chances of below median precipitation for the southern Plains, with the updated monthly precipitation outlook indicating subnormal precipitation along the Gulf and equal chances elsewhere. Monthly and seasonal temperatures strongly tilt toward above normal values. Although short-term forecasts indicate rainfall to return, the longer-term guidance points to overall drier conditions. Accordingly, although some short-term improvements may occur in Texas during mid to late February, drought should persist or redevelop in Texas and the southern Plains later in the period, except in extreme eastern Texas. Forecast confidence for the southern Plains is moderate."
McManus says that some short-term improvements will occur (with the coming rain), but drought will persist or redevelop as we get later into the spring.
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