Agricultural News
Kansas Winter Wheat Tour Pegs 2013 Crop Yield Well Below Average
Thu, 02 May 2013 17:36:36 CDT
The results are in, and the 2013 Winter Wheat Tour participants have pegged the Kansas wheat crop at 313.8 million bushels, well below last year's actual total of 360 million bushels. And the five year average of 341 million bushels.
Mark Hodges of Plains Grains, Incorporated, was on the tour and weighed in on the estimate in an interview with Radio Oklahoma Network Farm Director Ron Hays. (You can listen to their full conversation including a lot of information about the Oklahoma wheat crop by clicking on the LISTEN BAR at the bottom of this story.)
"I certainly don't think that 313 is too high, by any means. There are some fairly definitive areas within the state that we looked at over the last three days. Probably, without a doubt, the worst is in the southwest quadrant- The further south and the further west you go, it gets pretty bad, pretty quick."
Seeing diverse conditions throughout the three-day tour, participants also expect abandonment of 18% of the state's planted wheat acres, up from the yearly average of about 9% abandonment. Earlier this spring, USDA estimated that Kansas farmers planted about 9.3 million acres of wheat last fall. Thus, an 18% abandonment would mean only about 7.7 million acres of wheat would be harvested in Kansas.
Hodges said a lot of those abandoned acres will be in the southwest. "I will almost guarantee those guys in the southwestern part of the state, again, further south and further west, it's over for most of those guys just because of drought had already devastated them and the freeze was just the last nail in the coffin."
Day 3 of the annual Winter Wheat Tour was met with brutal weather conditions, including the first recorded snowstorm in Kansas in May since 1907.
As such, just 29 field stops were made by tour participants, who traveled from Wichita to Kansas City for the tour wrap-up. Today's average yield estimate for these fields is 52.3 bushels per acre, and ranged from 28 to 81 bushels per acre. Last year, the Day 3 yield estimate was 57.5 bushels per acre.
In the last three days, 570 field stops were made. The average yield from all those stops is 41.1 bushels per acre, well below last year's average yield of 49.1 bushels per acre, based on 608 field stops. In 2011, the average yield estimate was 37.4 bushels per acre, from 561 field stops.
During today's drive, participants were treated to snow and sleet, especially in Marion and Morris counties. Further to the south, along Hwy. 54 in Butler and Greenwood counties and east in Franklin County, the conditions were cold and wet, but there was good wheat to be found.
All the yield estimates from the last three days assume decent moisture and average temperature prospects from now until harvest. The crop is several weeks behind normal in terms of maturity; Monday's Crop Report from Kansas Ag Statistics indicated that just 1% of the crop has headed out, compared to 70% last year and 19 normal. Cold temperatures like we've been having will slow down the wheat crop even more.
This could be the last time the Winter Wheat Tour concludes at the Kansas City Board of Trade building in Kansas City. The CME Group, which bought the KCBOT last year, has put the iconic building up for sale.
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