Agricultural News
Historical Patterns Help Wheat Producers Sell at a Profit, Kim Anderson Says
Thu, 09 May 2013 17:24:15 CDT
When it comes to how to best market one's grain, Grain Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson says understanding the market's historical perspective can ease risks and produce profits. By evaluating what has happened over the last few years, Anderson says in a preview to this week's SUNUP program, producers can increase their profitability.
"We need to go back about five years to when we had a definite shift in the market. So we'll start at June 2008 and come to the present. If you were going to use Medford, Oklahoma, daily cash prices, and if you'll look at the average cash price, it was $6.40 over the last five years. If you look each day at an average daily move, it averages 11 ½ cents per day and the maximum daily change was 64 cents."
Things get even more interesting as harvest nears.
"Just looking at June prices, monthly average prices, if you go back to 2008, the average price in June was $8.19, but the range in prices was $1.67 range from $7.22 to $8.29. If you go to 2009, the average price was $5.84 and the range was from $5.24 to $6.67, a $1.43 price move just in the month of June."
"2010, prices were in the tank, $3.69 average, $3.39 to $3.91, only a 52-cent monthly price move."
"2011, $7.87, range of $1.87, from $6.71 to $8.69.
"And, then, last year, of course, average price was $6.42 with a range of $5.99 to $7.16, a $1.17 price move."
With this perspective in mind, Anderson says, selling strategy becomes more clear.
"I think it's a clear strategy to don't sill it all at once, that you stagger it throughout the market. What you've got to do is sell it over time, a third, a third and a third.
Also on this week's SUNUP program:
--Jeff Edwards covers the latest round of freeze damage in wheat, along with disease and weed control options.
--In the Mesonet report, Al Sutherland and Gary McManus show us the current drought monitor, temperature trends and plant-available water.
--Tom Royer demonstrates how the new collaborative website http://www.iwheat.org can be used to identify greenbugs.
--In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk shares deworming strategies.
--Craig McKinley explains how to identify and treat pinewood nematodes.
-In Naturally Speaking, John Weir has tips for viewers on safely burning brush piles.
Catch SUNUP: Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. & Sundays at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV or online at http://www.sunup.okstate.edu or http://www.youtube.com/sunuptv.
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