Agricultural News
NASS Harvested Cotton Acres Projection for Oklahoma Could be Too High
Thu, 12 Dec 2013 10:38:19 CST
Randy Boman and Shane Osborne of the Oklahoma State University cotton extension program write in the latest Cotton Comments newsletter:
The December 10 USDA-NASS Crop Production report indicated that 2013 US upland cotton production will be 12.4 million bales, down about 25 percent from 2012. About 10.1 million acres were planted across the Belt, and harvested acres are expected to be just under 7.8 million. Average yield across all harvested acres is expected to be 806 pounds per acre, down 81 pounds from 2012. The report also noted that Oklahoma planted about 185,000 acres in 2013, and will harvest 170,000 acres. From this harvested acreage, 200,000 bales will be produced. Average yield is expected to be 565 pounds per acre, up 34 pounds from 2012.
I believe there is a notable discrepancy with respect to harvested acres. NASS has Oklahoma at 170,000 harvested acres. We believe that we will fail most acres in Jackson County due to drought. This is because there was no irrigation water available to the Lugert-Altus Irrigation District in 2013. This would indicate that somewhere around 40,000 acres in Jackson County have failed. Tillman County has failed a large number of dryland acres. This number is perhaps 10,000 acres. Harmon County has also failed some dryland cotton acres. Therefore, we submit that the failed acres in these three counties totals about 50,000-60,000. If we go with the 60,000 failed acres, then based on 185,000 planted, we should be looking at about 125,000 acres standing for harvest. After informal discussions with our 14 operational gins in 2013, it is apparent that they are expecting a combined total of about 120,000 bales. This number is substantially lower than what USDA-NASS reported in the December 10 report (200,000 bales). Only time will tell how this plays out.
Oklahoma producers have been through a roller-coaster year and are making great harvest progress, and most gins are reporting at least 75 percent harvested acres at this time. Some areas are still less than 50 percent, however. Many dryland areas are still in the grips of extreme to exceptional drought, and considerable acreage failed. We still have dry watersheds for important reservoirs in the southwestern corner of the state. Some Oklahoma producers who were able to catch some timely rainfall and provide adequate supplemental irrigation, have seen record yields. Producers in several counties are reporting 3-4+ bale/acre irrigated yields. Dryland fields in areas that received excellent summer rainfall are producing 1.5 - 2.5 bale/acre crops. For many irrigated producers, the right factors aligned, and resulted in record yields. I attribute this to wise variety selection, the cool-off and rainy spell in late July, then a
September that was about 30 percent above normal for cotton heat unit accumulation. Overall, it is great to see this success, and I believe that in 2013, we may set a record for the number of growers who have achieved 4 bale/acre production.
The other great news is that the USDA-AMS Classing Office at Abilene is reporting that color and leaf grades, staple, micronaire, strength, uniformity, and bark contamination have all been good to excellent based on early classing results. For over 59,000 bales of Oklahoma cotton classed through December 8, 93% have been color grades 11, 21 or 31, with a solid 69% with color grade 11 or 21 - the best possible. Leaf grades have averaged 2.5 with 57% exhibiting leaf grade 1 or 2 - the best quality possible. Bark contamination is present is about 14% of the bales classed thus far. Staple (fiber length) has averaged 35.5 32nds. This is excellent, and we have nearly one-third of the crop with a 37 or longer staple. Micronaire (a measure of maturity) averaged 4.1 units, with 88.3% in the 3.5-4.9 range. If our numbers hold up, fiber strength may set a record in 2013. Currently our average is 30.9 g/tex, which is on par with the previous record set in 2010. We have nearly 78% of the crop classed thus far with strength of 30 or greater g/tex. The yields and quality of modern genetics is amazing. It is critical that growers make good decisions with respect to varieties.
Click here to read the full Abilene Classing Office report of December 8, 2013.
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Top Agricultural News
More Headlines...
