Oklahoma Farm Report masthead graphic with wheat on the left and cattle on the right.
Howdy Neighbors!
Ron Hays, Director of Farm and Ranch Programming, Radio Oklahoma Ag Network  |  2401 Exchange Ave, Suite F, Oklahoma City, Ok 73108  |  (405) 601-9211

advertisements
     
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Agricultural News


Declining Grain Prices Could Trigger New Farm Bill Assistance, USDA Economist Projects

Thu, 20 Feb 2014 12:20:46 CST

Declining Grain Prices Could Trigger New Farm Bill Assistance, USDA Economist Projects
Significant declines in grain prices and significant increases in federal budget outlays are ahead according to projections released Thursday by the USDA. The price drops in corn, soybeans and wheat could be enough to trigger payments under the new farm bill according to USDA Chief Economist Joe Glauber. Glauber released his findings during a presentation at the departmentís annual two-day Agricultural Outlook Forum. (Click here to see the charts and graphs Glauber used during his presentation.)

Glauberís projections indicate corn prices could fall to $3.90 per bushel in the coming crop year despite decreases in planted acres. Decreases in planted acres would not help wheat prices either, with Glauber projecting a price of $5.30 per bushel.

Soybeans would be hurt the least, with a projected price of $9.65 per bushel. That figure, however, represents a 24 percent decline from the current USDA estimate for the 2013-2014 farm cycle.

The prices for all three commodities fall below assumptions used by the Congressional Budget Office when it scored the 2014 farm bill. An updated CBO score next month will use the new USDA projections and is likely to show farm bill outlays will increase billions of dollars.

The new numbers reflect the dynamics of the new farm bill signed into law earlier this month by President Obama.

Previous projections had shown corn prices would drop as low as $3.65 per bushel under the old law, so the new projection of $3.90 represents a modest improvement on hopes that reduced acreage will stabilize prices. Even with the improvement, the gap between the earlier CBO estimates and Glauberís new projections looms large. If the projections are accurate, corn growers will receive substantial aid under the new Agriculture Risk Coverage program. ARC subsidies would be paid out in 2015.

If Glauberís projections of $5.30 per bushel wheat hold true, farmers would qualify for ARC payments or payments under the alternative Price Loss Coverage plan. The PLC target is $5.50 per bushel.

At $6.95 per bushel, soybeans might or might not qualify for ARC assistance depending on yields. Since farmers would have flexibility under the new farm law to designate acres as corn base instead of soybeans, they could do so in order to receive larger payments under ARC.

Glauber noted during his presentation that farm earnings for 2014 will likely fall to $101.9 billion. Thatís a reduction of almost 22 percent from the previous year. Even so, 2014 earnings would still be slightly above the ten-year average, Glauber said. He pegged farm debt at 10.5 percent, the lowest level since the USDAís Economic Research Service began compiling the data in 1960.



   

 

WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI

 


Top Agricultural News

  • Governor Stitt Announces the Addition of Four More Counties to Disaster Declaration for May Flooding and Storms  Fri, 16 Aug 2019 15:27:08 CDT
  • Friday Market Wrap-Up with Justin Lewis  Fri, 16 Aug 2019 13:57:18 CDT
  • Friday Afternoon Market Wrap-Up with Carson Horn  Fri, 16 Aug 2019 13:25:08 CDT
  • State Wheat Breeder Brett Carver Shares Vision for the Future of OSUís Wheat Improvement Program  Fri, 16 Aug 2019 10:37:43 CDT
  • Bakery Technician Adrian "Ady" Redondo Joins U.S. Wheat Associates Team in South Asia  Fri, 16 Aug 2019 10:34:19 CDT
  • TCFA Feedyard Programs Recognized by Leading Beef Sustainability Group   Fri, 16 Aug 2019 09:57:34 CDT
  • OKFB Encourages Ag Leaders to Participate in "Read an Accurate Ag Book Day" on September 6th  Fri, 16 Aug 2019 09:54:30 CDT
  • GIPSA Rule Resurfaces as DOJ Orders Formal Rulemaking Process Ė NCBA Fighting for Common Sense Solution  Fri, 16 Aug 2019 09:42:38 CDT

  • More Headlines...

       

    Ron salutes our daily email sponsors!

    Oklahoma Ag Credit Oklahoma Farm Bureau National Livestock Credit P&K Equipment Tulsa Farm Show AFR Insurance Stillwater Milling KIS FUTURES, INC. Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association

    Search OklahomaFarmReport.com


       
       
    © 2008-2019 Oklahoma Farm Report
    Email Ron   |   Newsletter Signup   |    Current Spots   |    Program Links

    WebReady powered by WireReady® Inc.