Analysts Expect Sharply Lower Cattle on Feed PlacementsTue, 13 May 2014 17:02:53 CDT
Analysts are expecting April placements of cattle on feed to be sharply lower in the USDA’s upcoming Cattle on Feed report due out May 22nd.
Allendale is projecting placements will be 6.1% lower than last year. USDA's cattle feeding margin ended the month with $216 per head profits on outgoing cattle. This strong incentive for heavy placements was curtailed by available feeder supplies. Corn averaged $5.02 in Western Kansas in March ($4.85 in March, $6.72 in April 2013). April placements help supply the September through November slaughter period.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 2.2% lower than April 2013. There was no calendar day adjustment this month.
Total Cattle on Feed as of May 1 now totals 1.2% under last year. There will be a bulge in slaughter on a year over year basis in June and July followed by a return to below last year levels.
Allendale projects the USDA will report a 563 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of April in its Cold Storage report which will be released May 16th. The five year average is 601 million lbs. for the end of April.
The Allendale estimate represents a decrease of 12 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for April is a 13 million lb. increase.
Beef stocks, at 398 million lbs., are above the five year average of 450. This month's number represents a 7 million lb. drawdown from the previous month. The five year average change is a 4 million lb. decrease.
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