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Agricultural News


November Crop Production and Supply Demand Reports Coming This Morning

Mon, 10 Nov 2014 06:33:23 CST

November Crop Production and Supply Demand Reports Coming This Morning The next round of USDA crop production and supply demand numbers will be out at 11:00 AM central time on Monday morning. And the common thread that you can see from the various market watchers is that while the production numbers will be eye catching- with record size crops in the mix- the real numbers that will determine market outlook going forward will be the demand figures buried down in the WASDE supply demand report.


According to DTN, Pre-report estimates for USDA's November round of numbers play to the old saying of "Big crops get bigger."


While the November round of USDA reports usually gets little attention, it might not be the case in 2014. Pre-report estimates for crop production came in larger than what USDA projected in October for both corn and soybeans. Corn production is pegged at 14.528 billion bushels, as compared to USDA's October estimate of 14.475 billion bushels. This is due to a slight increase in national average yield from 174.2 bushels per acre to an estimated 175 bpa. This increase in yield is expected to offset a slight decrease in harvested acreage from 83.1 million to 83.0 million.


Domestic soybean production is expected to come in just under 4.0 billion bushels with the pre-report average estimate at 3.958 billion bushels. As with corn, this is a slight increase from the 3.927 billion ushelsed in October with harvested acres expected to hold steady at 83.4 million while national average yield jumps to 47.5 bpa from October's 47.1 bpa.


The more interesting side of the November report could be the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Average pre-report estimates for global ending stocks show soybeans holding at 90.7 million metric tons, while corn increases slightly from the October WASDE figure of 190.6 mmt to 190.7 mmt. If realized, this may be viewed as little more than a rounding issue and not given a great deal of importance by the market. Global wheat ending stocks are expected to decrease slightly, from 192.6 mmt to 191.7 mmt. This would be in agreement with the most recent set of numbers released by the International Grains Council calling for a slight reduction in global stocks due to increased demand.


As for global production, few changes are expected to be seen in the November report. However, Brazilian production estimates for both corn and soybeans could prove to be a wildcard.


You can click on the PDF file link below for a "cheat sheet" to help you see what the pre report guesses were once the actual reports are released on Monday morning- the sheet from ADM is courtesy of Justin Lewis with KIS Futures.




   

06559_USDAPreReportEstimatesNov2014.pdf
   

 

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