OSU's Kim Anderson Analyzes New Bloomberg Survey on Winter Wheat ProductionThu, 30 Apr 2015 20:32:19 CDT
This week Bloomberg released their wheat projection estimate ahead of the Wheat Quality Council hard winter wheat tour next week. Bloomberg's all winter wheat estimate came in at 1.484 million bushels. That compares with last year's production of 1.375 million bushels and a five year average of 1.5 million. Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Specialist Dr. Kim Anderson said he thinks that is pretty close to where production will be this year.
On this weekend's edition of SUNUP, Anderson said he felt Bloomberg is overestimating their production estimate for the Oklahoma wheat crop. Bloomberg has estimated Oklahoma's wheat production at 109 million bushels. Last year's production came in at 48 million and the five year average around 100 million bushels. Anderson said that's an optimistic estimate.
"So, they're predicting a 127 percent increase above last year and about nine percent increase over the five year average," Anderson said.
Anderson think's the state's wheat production will be closer to 80 - 85 million bushels. He said there are several unknowns, such as abandoned acres and yield variability with the size of wheat heads.
Bloomberg is predicting Kansas wheat production at 298 million bushels. That's above last year's production of 246 million bushels and a five year average of 316 million.
In looking at world wheat production, Anderson said he is predicating production will be near average globally. Last year production was 26 billion bushels. Anderson also continues to watch the export outlook in the Black Sea region. He said it is hard to determine if Russia will implement the export tax in mid-May. Right now wheat from the Black Sea region is about 80 cents to a dollar less a bushel than Australian or U.S. wheat.
"That's going to eat into Australia and it's going to eat into our export demand," Anderson said.
The value of the U.S. dollar continues to fluctuate. While the U.S. dollar index has dropped 4.6 percent since April 13th, wheat prices have declined by 58 cents. Anderson said he thinks that price decline is reflective of expectations for a larger wheat crop.
In looking at the price of wheat at harvest, Anderson said if production is closer to the Bloomberg estimate than he expects prices will be about $5 a bushel or lower. If production comes in lower for all U.S. hard red winter wheat, then Anderson said he looks for wheat prices at harvest to be closer to $5.25 a bushel.
SUNUP can be seen on OETA across the state of Oklahoma- Dr. Anderson's segment on the markets is one of the standard features of this weekly show from Oklahoma State University.
-- This week on SUNUP, we visit with Jeff Edwards about the effect of the recent rain on Oklahoma's winter wheat crop. Jeff also invites viewers to Wheat Field Day at the North Central Research Station at Lahoma May 8.
-- In the Mesonet report, Al Sutherland and Gary McManus look at the statewide impact of the recent rain, the latest drought monitor and April rainfall totals.
-- Next, Kim Anderson analyzes the new Bloomberg survey on winter wheat production.
-- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk helps producers set realistic expectations for artificial insemination success rates.
-- Then, Derrell Peel covers the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report and provides an update on herd rebuilding.
-- We revisit a popular SUNUP segment on how to use prescribed fire to control ticks and other insects.
-- Finally, an encore of SUNUP's feature on wheat harvest in Caddo County, which has nearly 1.3 million YouTube views. Watch it here:
--We close with highlights from the Oklahoma FFA Association State Convention this week in Oklahoma City.
Catch SUNUP: Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. & Sundays at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
Catch SUNUP online through the OSU website by clicking here or through YouTube by clicking here.
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