WASDE Report Lacks Positive News for Commodity PricesWed, 13 May 2015 10:09:14 CDT
One commodity trader called the latest global grain stocks report to be a mixed affair. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report Tuesday morning. Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities said both reports lacked any bullish surprises. Radio Oklahoma Network's Leslie Smith caught up with Leffler after the report came out. Click or tap on the LISTENBAR below to listen to the full interview.
All U.S. wheat production was estimated at 2.087 billion bushels. That 61 million bushels more than a year ago. Winter wheat production was forecasted at 1.47 billion bushels, up 7 percent from 2014. Leffler said that's 92 million bushels more than a year ago. Hard Red Winter wheat production was estimated at 853 million bushels, up 16 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter wheat production was estimated at 416 million bushels, down nine percent from 2014. Leffler said Kansas wheat production was estimated at 272 million bushels. That was lower than the Kansas wheat tour estimate of 288.5 million bushels.
"So, we're looking at no big surprises really in the wheat numbers, not anything more bearish than we had expected," Leffler said. "Maybe one thing that was a little more bullish was the Kansas wheat crop being a little smaller than had been projected."
U.S. old crop wheat ending stocks was estimated at 709 million bushels. Leffler said that was more than trade expectations and 25 million bushels more than last month. Old crop ending stocks for corn in the U.S. was estimated at 1.851 billion bushels. Leffler said that was lower than trade expectations, but 24 million bushels more than last month. Old crop soybean ending stocks was estimated at 350 million bushels. Leffler said that was lower than trade predictions and 20 million bushels lower than last month.
U.S. new crop ending stocks for corn was estimated at 1.746 billion bushels. Leffler said that was 59 million bushels more than the February USDA Outlook Forum. Soybean ending stocks came in at 500 million bushels. Leffler said that was 70 million more than the February estimate. Wheat ending stocks was estimated at 793 million bushels, which was 30 million bushels more than February. Leffler said new crop stocks were much higher than the February numbers released by USDA.
In the WASDE report, old crop global soybean stocks was lowered by four million metric ton, world corn ending stock were increased by four million ton and world wheat ending stocks was increased by 3.75 million metric ton.
The new crop global ending stocks also came in much higher in this latest WASDE report. World soybean ending stocks were estimated at over 96 million metric ton, world corn stocks were estimated at 191.9 million metric ton and world wheat stocks were estimated at 203 million metric ton.
"Once again, those new crop stocks, both in the US and the world, can be a little bit of a drag on this market unless we start to see some problems through the growing season," Leffler said.
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