Kim Anderson Analyzes latest WASDE Report, Provides Short-Term Price OutlookThu, 14 May 2015 18:02:13 CDT
Few surprises were found in the latest global grain stocks report. On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) May report. On this weekend’s edition of SUNUP, Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Specialist Dr. Kim Anderson said the report showed that wheat remains to be plentiful globally.
Anderson said the ending stocks were higher than expected both for the 2014 - 2015 marketing year and the 2015 - 2016 year. He said next year’s ending stocks are projected to be up in the upper end of the 700 million, which is quite a bit of wheat.
Spring rains are also boosting projected domestic wheat production. About six weeks ago, Anderson projected Oklahoma would produce an estimated 80 million bushel crop. With continuing rains, that projection continues to increase. This week USDA projected Oklahoma’s wheat crop at nearly 119 million bushels.
In speaking with a farmer, Anderson said some wheat that looked really bad has recovered, but it may take until July before the crop can be harvested. Farmers will have some mature wheat to harvest as well as some later maturing wheat that will need more time, which could extend harvest.
SUNUP's Dave Deken also asked Anderson about how this could impact wheat prices. Click or tap below to listen to the full interview.
The wheat market had a strong rally Thursday and the value of the U.S. dollar fell, making U.S. commodities more price competitive globally.
“I think the funds are driving the price now,” Anderson said. “They got record short positions, sold positions and as they come out of those we could get rallies. But that market, July contact got above $5.20. That $5.20 is critical. If we can hold that into next week, than I think we’re looking pretty good.”
This week on SUNUP, we travel to Lahoma for the 2015 Wheat Field Day at the North Central Research Station. Interviews include Jeff Edwards on wheat varieties, Chad Penn on water-based drilling mud and Brian Arnall on soil nutrients after rain.
-- In the Mesonet report, Al Sutherland and Gary McManus discuss the recent rains, show us the latest drought monitor and soil moisture levels, and compare current forage conditions to the same period last year.
-- Next, Kim Anderson joins us from the annual Grain Grading School in Enid for a discussion on wheat prices and the latest supply and demand report.
-- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk looks at what to take note of after calving season to help increase productivity during the next season.
-- Then, Derrell Peel analyzes new livestock and meat trade data, as well as seasonal beef demand.
-- Finally, we conclude with the announcement of construction of a new facility to honor the late Raymond Sidwell, longtime superintendent of the North Central Research Station at Lahoma.
Catch SUNUP: Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. & Sundays at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
Catch SUNUP online through the OSU website by clicking here or through YouTube by clicking here.
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