On Feed and Placement Numbers Are Expected Above a Year Ago in Friday COF ReportWed, 20 May 2015 20:51:12 CDT
The next regular USDA Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday afternoon, May 22nd, at 2:00 PM central time. Rich Nelson with Allendale has offered the following thoughts and predictions regarding both the Cattle on Feed report, as well as the Cold Storage report that will be released at the same time.
"April Placements are expected to be 2.6% higher than last year at 1.679 million head. This is just over the five year average for April of 1.641. USDA's cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $169 per head loss on outgoing cattle. This would be five months in a row of losses. Corn averaged $3.80 in Western Kansas in April ($3.90 in March, $5.02 in April 2014). April placements supply the September through November slaughter period.
"Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 8.0% lower than April 2014. There was no calendar adjustment this month. Our 1.636 million head estimate is the smallest April marketing since the current data-series started in 1996.
"Total Cattle on Feed as of May 1 is 1.0% higher than last year. That is an increase from the April 1 total that was equal with last year.
"Allendale projects a 682 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of April. The five year average is 596 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 13 million lbs. from the previous month. This is just over the five year average month to month change for April of an 11 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 473 million lbs., are above the five year average of 449. This month's number represents a decrease of 7 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average change is a 1 million lb. decrease."
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