Wheat Prices Break Short-Run Down Trend, Anderson Offers AnalysisThu, 17 Sep 2015 19:58:44 CDT
Wheat prices finally rebounded a little bit with prices going up 30 cents. On this weekend's edition of SUNUP, Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson said it's hard to tell if wheat has hit bottom, but the market has broken the short-run down trend that was established last July, when the Kansas City wheat contract price dropped to $4.66. Anderson predicts the Kansas City wheat price will establish a sideways trading pattern.
"Now, one problem is that we haven't broken the long-run down trend that was established in December of 2010," Anderson said. "To break that, we probably got to get KC prices up above $5 and maybe up closer to $5.50."
The strong U.S. dollar is impacting farmers and their local cash grain prices. In following the trade weighted index by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Anderson said it has the index 18 percent above the eight year and ten year average. If you look at export prices, he said this increases the price for exports by a dollar or lowers the price to farmers by a dollar. Without this index, he said current wheat prices should be in the $5.50 - $5.75 range, rather than $4.50 - $4.75.
In watching the Kansas City wheat December contract, Anderson said the bottom is at $4.66, as that is the lowest price on the nearby contract since 2007. The price will challenge $5 on the topside and $4.60 on the bottom. If wheat prices can break through $5.20, he said there is chance it could be closer to breaking that long-term down trend and farmers could see some slightly higher prices.
In marketing 2015 crops, Anderson recommends farmers sell their corn and soybeans at harvest. If farmers have wheat in the bin, then he recommends farmers market the crop between now and January first. He said farmers can sell it in thirds or fourths by selling part of the crop now, then in October, November and December. Anderson recommends farmers set kill dates and kill prices in marketing this year's wheat crop.
Corn prices also rallied with a 30 cent bump, Anderson said it looks like it has established a bottom, but there is still a lot of harvest left to go. This could establish a sideways move in the market. Meanwhile, soybeans continue to hold around their low prices. He said the odds are in favor that the corn and soybeans have created the bottom. He think there is a 70 percent chance that the market has bottomed out and a 30 percent chance that prices will go down another 50 or 60 cents.
SUNUP host Lyndall Stout interviews Kim Anderson for the program. Click or tap on the LISTENBAR below to listen to the full interview.
This week on SUNUP, we make the fifth and final stop for our 2015 fair series at the Noble County Free Fair in Perry. We start with upcoming dates concerning the Farm Bill from Eric DeVuyst.
-- Then, Jackie Lee, an OSU Extension entomologist, explains how webworms impact trees and pecans, as well as the treatment options available.
-- In the Mesonet report, Al Sutherland and Gary McManus look at the expanding drought and how our latest temperatures compare to average temperatures.
-- Kim Anderson analyzes the recent 30-cent jump in wheat prices, and covers corn and soybean markets.
-- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk explains how to prepare heifers for beeding.
-- Next, Extension Cropping Systems Specialist Josh Lofton has an update on the sorghum crop as it nears harvest.
-- In Naturally Speaking, Dwayne Elmore shows us how to kill trees without cutting them down.
-- Finally, we see how chicken soup prepared at the fair by the Noble County chapter of Oklahoma Home and Community Education volunteers, is good for the county.
Join us for SUNUP: Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. & Sundays at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV.
SUNUP can be seen on OETA across the state of Oklahoma- Dr. Anderson's segment on the markets is one of the standard features of this weekly show from Oklahoma State University. Catch SUNUP online through the OSU website by clicking here or through YouTube by clicking here.
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