Traders Not Surprised by Increases in Corn, Soybean and Wheat StocksWed, 30 Sep 2015 17:15:56 CDT
U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stocks are much higher than last year, but the latest grain stocks report came in close to trade expectations. On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the September first quarterly stocks report. Market Analyst Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities said the old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2015 totaled 1.73 billion bushels, up 41 percent from September 1, 2014. This was almost 500 million bushels more than a year ago. On farm stocks were up 28 percent from last year with 593 million bushels stored on farms. Off-farm stocks came in at 1.14 billion bushels. That was up 48 percent from a year ago. Leffler said this was the largest September first quarterly stocks for corn in the last nine years.
"No real surprises in the report, even though all of these numbers were larger than a year ago, they were a little less than what the trade was looking for," Leffler said.
Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, totaled 191 million bushels, up 108 percent over last September. Leffler said that was 99 million bushels more than a year ago. On farm soybean stocks were up 133 percent from a year ago, as stocks totaled 49.7 million bushels. Off-farm stocks totaled 142 million bushels, up 101 percent from last September. The 2014 soybean production was also revised Wednesday. Leffler said USDA lowered production to 3.93 billion bushels, down 41.7 million bushels from the previous estimate. The planted acreage number was revised down 425,000 acres to 83.3 million acres and harvested area was revised down 470,000 acres to 82.6 million acres. The 2014 yield was lowered by 0.3 bushel from the previous estimate to 47.5 bushels per acre. Leffler said these revisions to the 2014 soybean crop wasn't a surprise to the market.
All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2015 totaled 2.09 billion bushels, up ten percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks were down nine percent to 647 million bushels. Off-farm stocks were up 21 percent from a year ago, at 1.44 billion bushels.
Old crop grain sorghum stored in all positions on September 1, 2015 totaled 18.4 million bushels, down 46 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks came in at 1.90 million bushels and were down three percent from last year. Off-farm stocks totaled 16.5 million bushels, down 49 percent from September 1, 2014.
USDA also released the final wheat production estimate for 2015. USDA estimated all-wheat production totaled 2.052 billion bushels. This was 26 million bushels more than last year. In looking at hard red winter wheat, Leffler said production totaled 827 million bushels. That was an increase of 89 million bushels over a year ago, but was less than what the trade was looking for. Soft red winter wheat production totaled 359 million bushels. This was 96 million bushels less than last year and a little less than what trade analysts were looking for.
"Overall, came in a little bit more positive for the wheat production numbers out there, but not enough to really say it's going any kind of market changer in the near term," Leffler said.
Since these numbers came in close to trade expectations and there were no extreme changes, Leffler said the market will focus on the 2015 fall harvest. He doesn't expect to see any major bearing out of this report. USDA will release its next crop production estimate on October 9th.
Radio Oklahoma Network's Leslie Smith interviewed Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities Wednesday. Click or tap on the LISTENBAR below to hear the interview.
Click here for the full USDA Quarterly Stocks Report.
Click here for the full USDA Small Grains Summary.
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