Kim Anderson Analyzes Why the International Grain Council Estimates are Lower Than the USDA'sThu, 26 Oct 2017 16:43:52 CDT
This week on SUNUP - Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson joins host Lyndall Stout again, this time analyzing the impact of the International Grains Council’s adjustment to its estimates for global wheat and corn production on the markets.
This week, the IGC raised its estimates of total global corn and wheat production, but still their numbers fell below that of the USDA’s estimates. The IGC suggests that total wheat production will arrive at 27.5 billion bushels this year, compared to USDA’s calculation of 27.6 billion bushels. For corn, IGC estimates production at 40.7 billion bushels compared to the USDA’s estimate of 40.9 billion bushels. Anderson notes that this figure is the second highest on record, behind the actual record of 42.3 billion bushels.
Anderson says the markets showed little reaction to this change from the IGC, which he says would be the typical circumstance given the close range between the estimates of the USDA and the IGC.
With both feed grain and wheat in the tank right now, producers are wondering when they will see a turn around. Anderson says corn stocks can be chewed through more quickly than wheat can, perhaps even enough within one year to see prices significantly improve. He says prices could be substantially high by next fall, if progress is made. For wheat, though, it could be quite a bit longer.
“I think everybody is in agreement that wheat prices are going to be in the tank, at least until we get into July or August of next year and maybe into the ’19 and ’20 year,” Anderson said. “It’s going to take it sometime for this glut of wheat to clear the market.”
He attributes the large volume of low quality wheat currently being stored here in the US, as part of the problem for the extended period of low prices. The other part, he says, is due to increased competition on the world market from Russia and the former Soviet Union states that increased their own production by nearly 50 percent with high levels of in-demand protein content.
However, he applauds farmers for the way in which they have reacted and encourages them to continue what they are doing. He says last year planted acres of wheat were the lowest they had been in decades and early estimates suggest they could be even lower this year.
But, he also says that if producers grow a high quality crop with 58+ lb. test weight and 11.5 percent protein, he could almost guarantee $0.80 to $1.00 higher prices by next year.
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP - or you can hear Kim's comments right now by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
Beyond Dr. Anderson’s weekly chat - the SUNUP crew has a very full lineup for your viewing this weekend:
This week on SUNUP, we start the show with a wheat planting update from David Marburger.
- In the Mesonet weather report, Al Sutherland shows us the changes in rainfall and humidity over the past week. Then, Gary McManus says cooler oceanic waters mean we could expect a La Nina weather pattern over the winter.
- Then, Misha Manuchehri has an update on weeds in winter crops and information on the upcoming Winter Crops Herbicide Symptomology Clinic.
- Derrell Peel says things are good with Oklahoma cattle markets, now producers are waiting on wheat pasture.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk has tips on how to manage cattle on sorghum forage following a freeze.
- Brian Arnall explains why nitrogen is essential to crops in Oklahoma.
- Finally, in Food Whys, Ravi Jadeja demonstrates how washing poultry before cooking can spread micro-organisms.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m.
Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
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