OSU's Kim Anderson Talks About the Huge World Cotton Crop and What it Will Do to PricesWed, 27 Nov 2019 18:07:08 CST
In his weekly visit with SUNUP host Dave Deken this weekend, Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson talks about cotton prices and what to expect as we move forward.
“I think they are going to stay in the neighborhood of where they are,” Anderson said. “They were up in the seventies and eighties, and with the massive cotton crop that we are getting in this year and around the world, they dropped down into the fifties, but they are back up in the sixties now.”
Anderson says there are markets for the cotton being produced this year. China is the big cotton buyer for the U.S., and there is word that the first phase of the agreement is going to be signed in the near future, he added.
“We have to watch out on the soybean, cotton and pork markets, it may be a case with China where you sell the rumor and buy the fact,” he said. “When we get that agreement, and people expect higher prices. They will hit the market with their commodities, and it will actually drive prices down.”
Wheat on the other hand, its price is floundering right now. While it is starting to move in the right direction, it still has a lot of room to make up, Anderson said. The record 28 billion crop isn’t helping the wheat prices around the world. Australia has a short crop and Argentina has a record breaking crop this year, he added.
“On the long-run, we have to watch the Black Sea Region,” Anderson said. “The good news out of the Black Sea Region, is their ending stocks are just slightly over 400 million bushels. When you are talking about a 4-billion-bushel crop, and only 400 million left over, their stocks to use ratio is less than 10%.”
Anderson says if the BSR has a short crop next year, the U.S. prices will go up. This is because of their relatively low number or ending stocks for this year.
This week on SUNUP, we travel to Beckham County to revisit a cotton producer whom we first met when he was trying to plant a crop in standing water. He is now harvesting that crop and we learn how it compares to previous years.
- Then, Seth Byrd tells us how cotton harvest is progressing across the state and the role weather is playing in it.
- In the Mesonet weather report, Wes Lee gives us a tour of the sensors under the soil at 120 Mesonet sites across Oklahoma.
- Amanda Silva has an update on the wheat crop across the state.
- Misha Manuchehri explains why Italian ryegrass control is important to the wheat crop and how long weed seeds can live in the soil.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk tells us why body condition score at calving can impact rebreeding.
- Kim Anderson says producers should not expect commodity prices to climb once a deal is reached with China.
- Finally, Amy Hagerman reminds producers about the upcoming Market Facililitation Program deadline.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m.
Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
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