Dr. Derrell Peel Sees No Big Surprises from Friday’s USDA Cattle Inventory ReportMon, 03 Feb 2020 06:37:33 CST
Friday afternoon USDA released their twice a year cattle inventory report. Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director, Ron Hays, chatted with Oklahoma State Economist, Dr. Derrell Peel, about what he sees in the numbers so far, " Well, I think, you know, the overall message here is that cattle inventories are down slightly pretty much across the board. So that would suggest that for this typical expansion numbers did peak in 2019, and we have moved slightly lower. But, you know, not very dramatically lower."
Dr. Peel says the beef cow herd did come in a little lower than expected, "The beef cow herd was down 1.2%. Beef replacement heifers were down 1.9%, and that's pretty much as expected, with the idea that we are trying to expand the herd anymore. Overall, cattle numbers came in at 94.4 million head, down four-tenths of a percent. And in that pretty close to general expectation."
Even though there was some anticipation that we would see the beef-cow herd come down just a bit, Peel says we still have a good supply for the first part of 2020, "We still have a whole pipeline of feeder cattle coming through. We know that the lots are currently full, so this would suggest we've got a few more months here, to work through these feeder supplies before we see them back down a bit."
Dr. Peel says he does believe producers have some opportunities for better prices and better profitability this year, "I mean even though, you know, on a case by case basis; these numbers vary a little bit from our expectation. With these numbers down slightly, it suggests that we're going to, sort of, relieve the supply pressure, and that means that we're holding it steady. We've been growing pretty aggressively for the last four or five years. And this means that we are in station keeping mode, slightly lower on numbers. All of that suggests that we’ve got generally improving cattle market fundamentals from a supply standpoint. Demand looks pretty good right now, so I think we have every reason to expect modestly higher cattle prices in general in 2020."
To review the USDA numbers- click or tap here for the full report.
In reviewing the state Beef Cow numbers- Texas Remains Top Beef Cow State at 4.57 Million head, Oklahoma is Second at 2.099 Million beef cows and Missouri is still third largest Beef Cow State at 2.083 Million Head.
Click on the LISTEN BAR below to hear the complete interview with Derrell Peel as he talks With Ron Hays.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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