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Agricultural News


USDA Supply and Demand Numbers Not Great According to Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at Allendale

Thu, 09 Apr 2020 15:11:49 CDT

USDA Supply and Demand Numbers Not Great According to Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at Allendale Rich Nelson is the Chief Strategist at Allendale, and Associate farm director KC Sheperd spoke with Nelson about the latest supply and demand numbers from USDA. Nelson says the news is not great right now due to the concerns around the Coronavirus, "Corn side went from 1.892 billion bushels last month to 2.092 billion bushes and the key ingredient to this increase in corn was the 375 million bushel drop that they had plugged in for corn and ethanol, of course, this is from the virus and economy concerns around the ethanol situation."

Nelson said when he looks at the latest export numbers, they look very good for today for both old crops and new crops, "Almost 1.9 million tons for the old crop situation and that actually was the 3rd highest for this specific week in history, so that is great news. New Crop numbers are quite strong too. China was a buyer of a little bit of old crop and a good portion of the new crop today too."

Nelson says the export situation is still concerning right now because the corn and soybeans are still a bit under what USDA has for the current export numbers.

Producers are facing severe challenges right now with falling prices and labor shortages. Nelson says there are several things to consider, "One big key ingredient still lacking is the May rainfall. So hopefully, we will have an excess supply of moisture combined with cooler weather that will give us some slow planting to get the crops in the field."

Nelson says as far as good news goes, right now, there is not a ton in the short-term, but he says the numbers so far aren't as bad as they could be, "all these new crop bearish expectations are just that. Expectations. none of those acreage numbers are firm yet, and the yield situation is not worked out yet, so it's very likely during the year we may have some time later on in the year to market for better prices."

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