Allendale's Rich Nelson Says March Wasde Estimates Left largely Unchanged.Tue, 09 Mar 2021 14:34:48 CST
USDA on Tuesday released its March Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.
USDA held pat on demand and domestic ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat in the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Corn ending stocks held at 1.502 billion bushels (bb) for the 2020-21 corn crop and soybeans held at 120 million bushels (mb). USDA increased Brazil's soybean production estimate by 1 million metric ton (mmt) to 134 mmt. It reduced Argentina production by 0.5 mmt to 47.5 mmt.
Allendale's Rich Nelson said USDA didn't give us much in this report as far as the U.S. Balance sheets, "On the Corn Side, they left ending stocks unchanged from last month 1.502. billion bushels. This is still the tightest corn supply in about seven years, so it's still supportive, but USDA, in many people's viewpoint, is still sandbagging on recognized, and what overall is still a strong export sales discussion. USDA simply waiting on these numbers to be shpped before they Recognize them.
Nelson Says Soybeans are Unchanged, "As far as soybeans. It looks like he was he left numbers unchanged from last month at 120 million bushels. Same type of story here but different than the corn side where they do have, shipments lagging and a very short term. US Exporters are still quite current on shipments here, so the trade that still suggesting tighter supplies, in the upcoming months. The question is when USDA may recognize that. As far as our discussion on the US wheat balance sheet, no change to the 836 million bushel ending stock there, you can argue maybe export sales might be a little overdone on USDA balance sheet, but on this report., theydid not change these numbers as far as the US discussion here."
To hear more from Rich Nelson at Allendale, click or tap below.
Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.
You can also access the full reports here:
-- Crop Production:
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
Total use for the 2020-21 corn crop was maintained at 14.625 bb. Exports were set at 2.6 bb and ending stocks came in at 1.502 bb.
The stocks-to-use ratio for corn comes in at 10.2%.
The average farm price also held at $4.30 a bushel.
Global numbers also saw very little change. Brazilian production remained forecast at 109 mmt. Argentina was the same as February at 47.50 mmt. Chinese imports remain at 24 mmt.
Overall, Global beginning stocks were raised slightly to 303.13 mmt. Production was increased 2.26 mmt to 1,136.31 mmt. Global exports were increased 850,000 metric tons to 186.55 mmt. Global ending stocks were raised 1.14 mmt to 287.67 mmt.
USDA left soybean supply and demand estimates unchanged from February. Ending stocks, at 120 mb, remain tight. Production is forecast at 4.135 bb and imports at 35 mb. Crush estimates came in at 2.2 bb with exports at 2.25 bb. Seed use increased by 1 mb and was offset by a 1 mb decline in residual use.
The national average farm gate price, at $11.15 per bushel, was also unchanged.
Globally, soybean ending stocks for 2020-21 came in at 83.74 million metric tons, 0.38 mmt lower than last month. USDA increased Brazil's soybean production estimate by 1 mmt to 134 mmt. It reduced Argentina production by 0.5 mmt to 47.5 mmt.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2020-21 came in at 836 mb, unchanged from February's report. USDA left beginning stocks and production unchanged at 1.028 bb and 1.826 bb, respectively. It pegs food use at 965 mb, seed use at 63 mb, feed and residual use at 125 mb and exports at 985 mb.
The national average farm gate price was unchanged from the prior month at $5 per bushel.
Global wheat ending stocks declined by 3.03 mmt. USDA increased its forecast for production, largely by increasing Australia's production forecast by 3 mmt to 33 mmt. However, global usage, largely for feed in China, resulted in the smaller ending stocks figure.
Tuesday's WASDE Report shared mixed news for the livestock sector. Beef production for 2021 was increased by 40 million pounds, but pork production for 2021 fell by 30 million pounds, which, alongside the weaker broiler and turkey configurations, lead to the reduction in total red meat production in 2021.
Beef production levels throughout the year's individual quarters was revised as higher placements will most likely contribute to greater production in the months ahead. Meanwhile, in the pork industry, USDA agrees that the second quarter of the year will most likely yield the lightest pork production, which will be a cause and effect reaction to tighter supplies.
The report's quarterly price projections shared favorable news to hog producers, while steer prices were unchanged from a month ago.
From last month's projections, barrow and gilt prices are projected to increase to $56.0, up $5.50 from February 2021 and up $12.82 from March 2020 price projections.
Beef imports fell by 70 million pounds from a month ago, while beef exports for March were unchanged at 3,145 million pounds. In the hog industry, watching exports is a priority as gauging China's need for pork amid their disease outbreak continues to be challenge.
Pork exports for March were unchanged, which comes as a lukewarm piece of information. It's good news that exports weren't revised lower, but we would have liked to see exports increase, as we always do.
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