Oklahoma's Latest Farm
And Ranch News
Tuesday, August 16, 2022
Hay Supplies Tight; Record Hay Prices Result
Mondays, Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry. This analysis is a part of the weekly series known as the "Cow Calf Corner" published electronically by Dr. Peel and Mark Johnson. Today, Dr. Peel talks about drought-induced reduction in hay production.

The August Crop Production report released recently by USDA-NASS included forecasts for hay production in selected states and the U.S. Total production of alfalfa hay in 2022 is forecast at 49.1 million tons, down 0.3 percent from 2021 levels and 13.6 percent below the ten-year average from 2011-2020. All other hay production for 2022 is forecast at 67.7 million tons, down 4.6 percent year over year and down 7.4 percent from the ten-year average. Total 2022 U.S. hay production is forecast at 116.8 million tons, down 2.9 percent from one year ago and down 10.1 percent from the 2011-2020 average. Alfalfa and other hay prices are forecast at record levels in 2022.

Drought reduced hay production in 2021 with continued impacts in 2022. May 1 hay stocks were down 6.9 percent year over year but were down 16.9 percent from the 2011-2020 average. The total hay supply for the 2022-2023 hay crop year (May-April) is the sum of May 1 (beginning) hay stocks and 2022 hay production. The total hay supply is projected to be down 3.4 percent year over year and is down 11.0 percent from the ten-year average (Table ).

Among six of the top ten hay states, either reduced May 1 stocks or reduced 2022 hay production or both are contributing to significant reductions in hay supplies (Table 1). Low May 1 stocks reflects carryover drought impacts from 2021. Reduced 2022 hay production is the result of drought and/or high input costs including fertilizer and fuel. The effects are cumulative.

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