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Tuesday, November 8, 2022

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Beef Exports Facing Headwinds
Mondays, Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry. This analysis is a part of the weekly series known as the “Cow Calf Corner.” Today, Dr. Peel talks about headwinds in beef exports.

So far in 2022, beef exports have increased over the record levels of 2021. The January – September period has total beef exports up 4.6 percent year over year. However, the latest data shows that exports in the month of September, were down 5.7 percent year over year, the largest, and only the second monthly decrease in beef exports in 30 months. The only other monthly decrease in beef exports since March 2020 was a 0.9 percent year over year decrease in March 2022. The recent decrease in beef exports may indicate that global economic weakness is having negative impacts on beef exports, as has been feared.

The combination of macroeconomic weakness around the world and U.S. efforts to combat inflation with higher interest rates has resulted in the U.S. dollar strengthening against many currencies. A stronger dollar makes U.S. product exports more expensive and simultaneously makes imports of foreign products more attractive. Figure 1 shows the decrease in the currency exchange rates for the three largest beef exports markets, Japan, South Korea and China/Hong Kong over the last year. The figure shows, for example, that the Japanese Yen has weakened by 30 percent in September and October compared to last year. In other words, one dollar will exchange for 147 Yen in October 2022 compared to 113 Yen one year ago. Similarly, one dollar today buys more South Korean Won and Chinese Yuan compared to last year.

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