Agricultural News
Renewable Fuels Association Praise Corn Producers and Predict Record Crop for 2011
Thu, 30 Jun 2011 10:36:10 CDT
The Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage report was recently released by USDA and it included some big surprises in both stocks numbers and planted acreage, especially for corn. Wheat, corn and soybeans all saw larger grain stock numbers that what was anticipated, while corn came in at 3.67 billion bushels. In the acreage report, USDA pushed the corn acreage higher than was estimated, after lowering it previously, to the second highest number since 1944 at 92.3 million acres.
It is quite likely that today's USDA Acreage Report took everyone in the corn industry by surprise, including the Renewable Fuels Association. According to the RFA, while corn acres are at their second-highest level since 1944, total principal planted crop acreage is only 1% above 2010 and slightly lower than 2009.
Based upon USDA's latest projections of average corn yield (158.7 bushels/acre) and harvested acres (84.9 million), it would mean a 2011 harvest of 13.47 billion bushels nearly 300 million more bushels of corn than USDA was projecting in its most recent supply/demand estimates. This would mean 2011/12 carryout stocks could be very close to 1 billion bushels (assuming no changes to USDA's latest demand estimates). If average yields are closer to the historical trend (162 bu/acre), we would see a crop of 13.75 billion bushels.
As RFA VP of Research and Analysis Geoff Cooper notes, this is evidence that American farmers respond strongly to price signals and remain on track to continue the tradition of ever-increasing productivity. However, Cooper also cautioned that it is still early in the growing
season and weather conditions in July and August will be of paramount importance. The RFA released the following statement in reaction to the USDA acreage report.
"American farmers answer the bell time and time again, and this year's growing season is no exception. Despite flooding and other adverse weather during planting, farmers exceeded expectations and are on pace to once again meet the demands on corn for feed and fuel. Flooding in key corn growing areas may slightly alter the final harvested acreage number, but based on today's report, it is realistic to expect a record corn crop in 2011," said Cooper. "The takeaway from this report is that U.S. farmers continue to apply the most efficient and effective technologies to produce record or near-record crops year in and year out. These technologies can also provide farmers in developing countries the tools they need to be more productive and improve their ability to meet their nation's need for food, feed and energy. Grain production is not a zero sum game."
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