Agricultural News
2011 Drought- Blame It Mostly on La Nina
Fri, 08 Jul 2011 06:52:36 CDT
Drought is the driving force for many decisions being made by Oklahoma farmers and ranchers this summer. That was one of the reasons we took the time and spent the money to travel to the South Central US Drought Impacts and Assessment Workshop in Austin, Texas on Thursday.
The conditions farmers and ranchers now face in Oklahoma, Rexas and New Mexico really started last summer and fall, as the rains in most of this country (except for portions of Eastern Oklahoma) shut down in the fall and have not returned in any quantity. Forecasters with the National Weather Service documented this is the driest nine months on record in the state of Texas and Louisiana- and the third driest in Western Oklahoma.
We tweeted through much of the conference- and here are some of the highlights we shared with those who follow us- our handle on Twitter is Ron_on_RON. (We will flesh out the abbreviations to make things easier to read)
Victor Murphy of the National Weather Service South Region points to La Nina as the key to drought since last summer in Okla & Texas.
Last 9 months have been among the driest ever in Texas & western half of Oklahoma- La Nina is factor but not only cause-
Marty Hoerling-Meterologist for NOAA says is strong link to La Nina and drought in Southwest and Southcentral USA. He adds there is little difference between weak and strong La Nina events.
Marty Hoerling of NOAA says current drought is not a predictor of hot dry conditions the balance of summer in Okla and Texas.
2nd half of morning program underway at Drought Impact Workshop- we heard from Dan Collins who says CFS are pointing to possible new La Nina. CFS stands for Climate Forecast System. The re-emergence of La Nina could mean greater chance of drought hanging on in Oklahoma, Texas and NewMexico. Collins, who is with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center says forecast models say that ugly lady-La Nina, could return in Fall 2011 and that could result in extending current dry weather patterns- Dry Oklahoma winter could follow.
For much of Oklahoma- we would need more than 18 inches of rain over next three months to end drought. Dan Collins at Austin Workshop adds that there is less than a 5% chance of getting enough rain in most of Oklahoma over next 3 months to end drought.
Klaus Wolter of the University of Colorado, who works with NOAA in Boulder, says 1950s style drought was anchored in Texas and Oklahoma by repeated LaNina events. Klaus Wolter adds it normally takes a "big event" to break heat & dryness after drought is established-best bet could be a hurricane. Bottom line from Klaus Wolter- If we slip back to LaNina- chances go up for more drought and a potentially very dry winter in South Central US- including Oklahoma.
One of those that we visited with during the conference was Klaus Wolter- and you can hear our conversation with Klaus by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
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