Agricultural News
Traders Will be Watching Corn Production Numbers in Upcoming WASDE Report, Anderson Says
Thu, 08 Aug 2013 11:17:42 CDT
The World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimate report will be released Monday. Ahead of that report OSU's Small Grains Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson previews trade expectations. He says there is not much going on in the wheat markets as most traders are awaiting Monday's report.
"If the market's watching anything, it's watching corn and in corn production and in the weather in the Corn Belt area.
"China is making news relative to the wheat. There's some speculation that China will be the big buyer for both wheat and corn this year. We're just going to have to wait a little longer to see if that comes to pass over the next couple of months.
"Looking at the WASDE report, the prerelease estimates have production of all wheat at 2,111,000,000 bushels. That's just slightly lower than USDA's report in July at 2,114,000,000 bushels. In 2012, you'll remember, production was just short of 2.3 billion bushels and the five-year average is 2,240,000,000.
"If you look at hard red winter wheat, the trade estimate for Monday is 792 million bushels; 793 million was the July estimate for the USDA. Last year we produced just over a billion bushels and the five-year average is 951 million bushels.
"Ending stocks for wheat on prerelease, 573 million bushels, just slightly lower from 576 in July, last year 718, five-year-average 791. Relatively tight wheat stocks projected for next year."
Overall, Anderson says, ending stocks are projected to be tighter in the U.S., slightly tighter in the world.
Anderson says there is a minor change in corn production: 13.95 billion bushels in July, the trade estimate right now is 13.98 million bushels.
"That's going to be the critical number for Monday as to what happens with corn prices and that will probably bleed over into the wheat pit."
Anderson says next week's numbers will set the trend for late August, but expects a 45 cent move in wheat before the end of December.
You can listen to Kim Anderson's full analysis of projections for the upcoming WASDE report by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
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