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Agricultural News

USDA Continues to Forecast Record US Corn and Soybean Crop

Fri, 10 Oct 2014 16:20:01 CDT

USDA Continues to Forecast Record US Corn and Soybean Crop

America's farmers will produce the largest corn and soybean crop in the nation's history this year. That's according to the latest's crop production report released by the US Department of Agriculture. The nation's corn production is being forecast at a record 14.5 billion bushels with a national yield average of 174.2 bushels per acre. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. This year 22 states are expected to produce a record high corn yield. USDA estimates 83.1 million acres will be harvested.

The nation's soybean bean production will set a new record with USDA forecasting production at 3.93 billion bushels with a national yield average of 47.1 bushels per acre. USDA estimates a record 83.4 million acres of soybeans will be harvested this year. This is a rare occasion that harvested soybean acres will out number harvested corn acres.

USDA lowered the estimate for the nation's cotton production from last month, but total production looks to be 26 percent higher than 2013. All cotton production is being forecast at 16.3 million 480-pound bales, down two percent from last month. Yields are expected to average 790 pounds per acre, down 31 pounds from last year.

In evaluating the report, Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities told the Radio Oklahoma Network there was no big surprises in the USDA reports.

Corn ending stocks came 2.081 billion bushels, 49 million lower than trade expectations but an increase of 79 million over September's estimate.   Feed and residue usage increase in usage by 50 million bushels while corn exports and ethanol usage were left unchanged. Soybean ending stocks came were pegged at 450 million bushels. That's less than trade expectations and 25 million than last month. The crush and soybean exports were left unchanged from September's report. Soybean imports dropped by five million bushels. After the USDA report was issued, corn and soybeans prices made new contract lows and closed lower for the day.

Wheat ending stocks came in lower than expected at 654 million bushels. Leffler said that was 54 million less than what the trade was looking for, which gave wheat prices a slight bump on Friday, but were unable to hold their highs of the session.

"Overall these numbers didn't change the outlook much more than what anybody was looking at before," Leffler said. "As far as the wheat goes, we're going to have to see some increase demand to meet these expectations that USDA put out today and we're also going to have to see some changes out there that's going out there in harvest right now to change expectations for the corn and soybeans as it continues to look like we're looking at record yields out there, record production. Even though we are behind normal on getting this crop harvested it looks after we're past this weekend we're going to have some clearing weather to get this harvest moving along in the midwest."

These reports look to have a short impact on the market. Leffler said these have been pretty much "put to bed", as traders will shift their attention to following harvest reports and will look ahead to the next USDA crop production report in November. Next week the Farm Service Agency will also release an updated acreage report on Wednesday, October 15th.

Click here the complete October Crop Production Report from USDA.

Click here for the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA.



Leslie Smith gets reaction from Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities.
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