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Agricultural News

USDA Continues to Predict Big Global Crop Production

Mon, 12 Jan 2015 18:19:07 CST

USDA Continues to Predict Big Global Crop Production
Large corn, soybean and wheat crops looks to hold down commodity prices for the near future. On Monday the U.S. Department of Agriculture released several reports on the domestic and international crop production and ending stocks. Radio Oklahoma Network's Leslie Smith interviewed Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities about how the report will influence the futures market. Click or tap on the LISTENBAR below to listen to the interview.

Leffler said overall the numbers were negative for soybeans, wheat was mostly negative, while corn estimates were neutral to slightly friendly.

USDA lowered corn their domestic corn production estimate to 14.216 billion bushels. That was 133 million bushels less than trade expectations and 191 million less than USDA's December estimate. The nation's crop averaged 171 bushels per acre. That was 2.3 bushels per acre less than the trade expected and 2.4 bushels per acre lower than December's estimate.

The nation's soybean production was increased by USDA to 3.969 billion bushels. That was 13 million bushels higher than trade predictions and 11 million bushels greater than the December report. The nation's soybean yield estimate was increased to 47.8 bushels per acre.

USDA's ending stocks report came in closer to trade analyst estimates. Corn stocks came in at 1.877 billion bushels. Leffer said this was the largest U.S. ending stocks in the last nine years. U.S. soybean ending stocks came in at 410 million bushels, which was unchanged from the December report.   Leffler said this was the largest U.S. soybean ending stocks of the past eight years. The nation's wheat ending stocks came in at 687 million bushels. That was 33 million bushels more than the December estimate and was the fifth largest U.S. ending stocks of the past 13 years.

USDA also released their December 1 - grain and soybean stocks estimates report Monday. Corn came in at 11.2013 billion bushels. That was 750 million higher than a year ago. Soybeans came in at 2.524 billion bushels. That was 370 million more than a year ago. U.S. wheat stocks came in at 1.525 billion bushels. That was 50 million more than a year ago.   

USDA also released the U.S. 2015 winter wheat acreage estimate. Leffler said this was one of the bigger surprises of the day with USDA lowering their estimate for total wheat acres, hard red and soft red wheat acres. Total wheat acres were estimated at 40.5 million acres. That was 2.1 million lower than trade estimates and 1.9 million acres less than the final planting acre number from last year. Hard red winter wheat acres were estimated at 29.5 million acres. That was one million acres less than last year. Soft red winter wheat was estimated at 7.5 million acres. This was a million acres less than last year. White winter wheat came in at 3.5 million acres. This was in line with trade estimates and 100,000 acres more than a year ago.

USDA also released their latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Leffler said the biggest change came in the global soybean numbers. USDA increased Brazil's production by 1.5 million metric ton to 95.5 MMT. Argentina's production estimate remained unchanged at 55 MMT. World soybean ending stocks were increased by almost a million metric ton to 90.78 MMT, making them record large.

World wheat production came in at a record number and world wheat stocks was estimated at 196 MMT. Leffler said that was a little over a million metric ton more than the December WASDE estimate. This is the fourth largest world wheat ending stocks of the past 13 years.

Global corn ending stocks were lowered due to a lower estimate of U.S. corn production. Leffler said they dropped a little over three million metric ton but remains the largest of the past 15 years.

"Overall it pretty much confirms on thing, we still have large supplies of wheat, corn and soybeans in the U.S. and the world," Leffler said. "We are definitely going to have to see an increase in demand to help hold those down. It also proved we are also still looking at a very large soybean crop in South America. The biggest thing we are going to have to see is as we come out of dormancy, we see more estimates out there on this wheat acreage, whether or not we see more wheat acres than what the USDA put out."



Leslie Smith interviews Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities
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