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Agricultural News

Leffler Says Lower Placements in January Cattle on Feed Report Friendly News for Cattle Market

Mon, 26 Jan 2015 04:44:44 CST

Leffler Says Lower Placements in January Cattle on Feed Report Friendly News for Cattle Market
The first Cattle on Feed report of the year looks to potentially support the cattle market on Monday morning. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports the January first cattle on feed number came in at 10.69 million head. This was 101 percent of a year ago and 4.6 percent below the three year average. Nebraska numbers were up four percent, while Kansas and Texas were both up two percent in comparison to a year ago. This was the second smallest January on feed number of the past 12 years and second largest number of the past nine months.

Radio Oklahoma Network's Leslie Smith interviewed Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities after the report came out Friday afternoon. Click or tap on the LISTEN BAR below to listen to the full interview.

Overall, Leffler called the report "slightly friendly" with a lower than expected placement number. December placements came in at 1.54 million head, this was 7.7 percent lower than the three-year average. Leffler said this was also the second smallest December placement number of the past 13 years and the second smallest placement number for the year 2014. Texas was down 12 percent, Kansas was down eight percent and Nebraska was down two percent in comparison to a year ago.

On the weight break down of placements, cattle less than 600 pounds were down 8.4 percent, 600 - 699 pounds was down 11.8 percent, 700 - 799 pounds was down 14 percent and cattle above 800 pounds was 2 percent larger than a year ago.

December marketing totaled 1.65 million head. That was 5.5 percent below the three year average. Leffler said this was the third smallest December marketing of the past
19 years and the third lowest marketing month for the year 2014. Marketings in Texas were down 13 percent, Kansas was down 4 percent and Nebraska was up 5 percent over a year ago.   

On Thursday, USDA released the monthly cold storage report estimating December beef stocks at 441.226 million pounds. Leffler said it was surprising that USDA reported an increase in stocks over the past month by 10.9 percent. This was also a slight increase over a year ago.

"The last time beef supplies were higher than the previous year was back in November of 2013," Leffler said. "I think the higher than expected beef stocks that we saw on Thursday's report added to the sell off that we saw today (Friday) in our cattle complex, along with the continued long liquidation by the funds and some panic selling also taking place."

Friday's lows in the cattle markets are the lowest traders have seen since August for the February live cattle contract and lowest since June for the April live cattle contract. Most feeder cattle contracts were also near their January lows.

"Hopefully the lower placement number in today's report and the need for a correction to the oversold condition of the future's market will allow the cattle to see some positive trading on Monday morning," Leffler said.

To review the complete USDA report- click here for the PDF version of the data.


Leslie Smith interviews Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities
right-click to download mp3


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