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Friday, July 1, 2022

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OSU's Kim Anderson says World Wheat Production is Near Record High
This week on SUNUP is Dr. Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University Extension grain market economist. During this week's edition, Anderson speaks on where the market may go from here.

The lead in the news right now, Anderson said, is Russian wheat production. Russian wheat production is predicted to be over 3.1 billion bushels this year, which is a record crop, Anderson added.

Russia is predicted to export 1.5 to 1.6 billion bushels of wheat this year, Anderson said, whereas they normally will export around 1.2 to 1.4 billion bushels. Russia held wheat in storage last year, he added, and they are ready to put it out on the market.

"Looking at Ukraine, 700 million bushels is about what they will normally export," Anderson said. "They only exported 370 million last year. This year they are looking at maybe 175 million bushels."

World production is not at the record, Anderson said, but it is near-record at 28.4 billion bushels. The world record, he added, is 28.6 billion bushels.

"We've got a sufficient amount of wheat, we just got to get it out on the market," Anderson said. "I think you have got to look at the world stocks-to-use ratio."

The world stocks-to-use ratio is predicted to be at 19.6 percent, Anderson said. The average, he added, is 23.5 percent.

"In 2016, the year where we had 9.8 billion bushels ending stocks, it (stocks-to-use-ratio) was 24 (percent)," Anderson said.

Anderson says prices may have found a bottom. The war in Russia drove high wheat prices for a while, he added.

"If we will go back to 2008 and look at where wheat prices have been and how much they can change, it will give us an idea of what they can do," Anderson said. "We were at 9 dollars when we came into that crop. We bottomed out at $3.50 within that marketing year or the next marketing year."

Given the uncertainty and looking back at the events of 2008, Anderson recommends that producers stagger their wheat sales in the market, but it depends on how much risk they can take.

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